Monday, May 11, 2015

Market reaction to the election. The meeting of the Eurogroup in the spotlight – Money.pl

2015-05-11 13:20

Company of raw materials stand out from the Stock Exchange

Przemyslaw Lawrowski , an analyst Money.pl
 
 Passionate about financial markets. Submit a long-term investment over short-term speculation. A supporter of fundamental analysis, however, does not despise information stemming from technical analysis. She confesses theory that in making investment decisions emotions are a bad adviser.

Author: Przemyslaw Lawrowski

The situation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange has not changed much compared to what we saw at the beginning of the session . Large companies react today primarily on the trading of raw materials. An important element is the meeting of the Eurogroup.

The leader of the WIG20 index increases PKN Orlen and PGNiG. Least doing KGHM, which loses due to the depreciating copper. Also falling crude oil prices due to increasing supply.

Red metal loses today in response to the third of six months cut interest rates in China. People’s Bank of China on Sunday lowered the annual rate loans by 25 basis points. Its current height is 5.1 percent.

Indices small and medium-sized companies are in the middle of today’s session to close Friday’s closing level.

fell below zero in the morning is the French CAC. Other European indices lost less than 0.5 percent. A key element of today’s session is the meeting of the Eurogroup on Greece. Any misunderstanding in the talks will be treated negatively by the market.

In the afternoon we met the Bank of England decision on interest rates. As expected, they remained unchanged.

The market reacts to the election. Eurogroup in the spotlight

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The situation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange has not changed much in relation to the …

Przemyslaw Lawrowski, hours. 10:19

The presidential election did not affect much on the Polish financial market. More important are likely to be negotiations on aid for Greece. The WIG20 index at the start of the week departed slightly from the 2550 level branches.

index grouping the largest companies listed on the WSE record slight declines. WIG20 in the first minutes of trading lost about 0.3 percent away from the level of 2550 points. However, they are induced mood prevailing in the markets of Western Europe.

Today will be a general meeting of shareholders of Lotos who decide to cover the losses for the previous year and the liquidation of the Special Fund for the financing of social projects. Lotus loss for the previous year amounting to almost 1.5 billion has already been discounted. In the morning, the company lost less than 0.4 percent.

You pay one euro 4,06 zł morning. You can see that currency market did not care the results of Sunday’s presidential election. In relation to any of the major currencies observed no apparent movement in the morning.

A much more important element will be scheduled for a Monday meeting of the Eurogroup. The theme is aid to Greece, which is Tuesday 12 May to deposit the International Monetary Fund 767 million. All the fuss is done around the fact that foreign lenders and Greece can not reach an agreement on the reform and restructuring of debt.

In this context, we will certainly have to deal with nervous market reaction, however, binding decisions should not be to expect.

For now, the greatest confusion can be seen on the French stock exchange. CAC session after losing more than percent. The minimum recorded declines but the vast majority of European indices. This applies to the DAX index, the FTSE-MIB, IBEX.

Greece once again affect the markets, and the WSE will compete for the important level

Przemyslaw Lawrowski, May 10, hours. 14:52

WIG20 once again will fight to the level of 2550 points. More important for the market, it may turn the question of Greece, which on Tuesday must be paid to the account of the IMF over 700 million euros. Investors will also focus on the results of companies listed on the WSE, which will be particularly high in the second part of the week. Reports the praise to such giants as Energa, LPP, PKO BP and Tauron.

In the first part of the week, investors from the old continent will watch again on Greece. Already on Tuesday (May 12) falls next installment to repay the huge debt of the country. This time, Athens must pass the International Monetary Fund 767 million, and it’s not the only one installment per this month. Greece has already informed that in May paid on account of the IMF 200 million.

In the context of Tuesday’s repayment will be important Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Monday. All the fuss is done around the fact that foreign lenders and Greece can not reach an agreement on the reform and restructuring of debt. Finally, it can be assumed that transfer the next tranche of the IMF will be made and the collapse of Greece in the coming days is rather unlikely.

With Greece can not do without nervousness in the market. Especially it touches the stock exchanges German, French, Italian and Spanish. WSE will feel the change in sentiment, but the scale of the changes caused by this factor will be less. In turn, the foreign exchange market probably react the weakening of the euro against the dollar.

WIG20 again stood at the door of the level of 2550 points. It’s hard to say, however, whether the correction started in late April, is only temporary. The key will be the aforementioned level. If it manages to permanently break, then we have to deal with an attack on the level of 2600 points.

During the first session of the new week, the WSE will not appear many important macroeconomic publications. On account will merit data from China. Shanghaiu Stock Exchange is close to 7-year peaks and the risk of a correction is high.

From our perspective, the mood in China will affect the price of copper. This while largely determines the situation we are seeing on shares of KGHM Polish Copper. The company earned in the first three months of this year 397 million zlotys, or about 20 million less than last year.

On Monday will be held a general meeting of shareholders of Lotos who decide to cover the losses for the previous year and the liquidation of the Special Fund for the funding of social projects. Any price movements of shares should be small because the Lotus loss for the previous year amounting to almost 1.5 billion has already been priced in.

Weaker year-on-year, also fared company’s results for the first quarter of this year. In the first three months of the year Lotus lost 101 million against 32 million loss a year earlier.

Among the hard data that appear in this week, also replace the preliminary reading of GDP for the euro zone for the first quarter, data on inflation and GDP in Poland, GDP reading for Germany as well as data on industrial production in the US.

Pekao, LPP and Energa

On Tuesday, the results will show Pekao, LPP and Energa. In March, President Miroslaw Belinsky said that the Energa expects profit before tax excluding amortization costs in 2015 will have a similar value to that of 2014. Improved results is estimated to be only in the distribution segment. A much weaker looks segment generating energy from conventional sources. Here, the company will have to invest in a power plant in Ostroleka, due to come into effect stricter EU rules on greenhouse gas emissions.

Over the last three months Energi shares gained 5 percent. It significantly ahead of the sectoral WIG-Energy, which gained about 3 percent.

The weaker quarter may be behind the bank Pekao. We have seen the report, among others, Bank Handlowy and ING. Both companies pointed to the difficulties in maintaining past results due to environmental record low interest rates.

In very good condition are the company’s clothing. He praised the record high last week the company of CCC. Recent data for the LPP were also good. Throughout 2014, the company generated 479.55 million, compared to 430.96 million a year earlier. Somewhat weaker growth in revenues was recorded in April (+1 percent year on year).

Stocks apparel giant got cheaper this year. However, the reason may be historical share price peak reached in September last course, which persisted until November. Similar variations can be seen in the case of CCC.

Later in the week, their reports for the first quarter of this year will show another large company. On Thursday it will be a bank PKO BP, PZU Group Azoty, Eurocash and Asseco Poland. In turn, on Friday the results will boast of Cyfrowy Polsat, JSW, Synthos, and Tauron Polish Energy. Week ends publication of the results of another large energy company, which is Enea.

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