Respondents “Parquet” economists szacowali on average, real GDP (i.e. calculated at constant prices) slowed down to 2.9 percent. Reading at 2.5 percent. was hoping just for the two biggest pessimists.
however, it was Known that these projections were subject to significant risk of error, because GUS has recently revised its growth of the Polish economy last year. (with 3.6 percent. to 3.9 per cent.), not giving, as the growth of formed in separate quarters. And it is of value to compare GDP year to year.
on Tuesday, the respect for GUS means that in the last quarter, the Polish economy has developed very slowly since the third quarter of 2013. Annualized quarter-to-quarter, adjusted for seasonal factors, GDP grew by 0.2 percent, on higher prices by 0.8 percent. in the second quarter and a decline of 0.1 percent. in the first quarter of this year.
statistics are not presented in the structure of the GDP growth in the third quarter. – Probably, we were dealing with, which enhances the effect of the weakness of investment, which was a consequence of the transition period between the financial perspectives of the EU. Negative impact on investment, it also has a lingering uncertainty as regards the situation in the country (mainly institutional environment, fiscal decisions), and abroad (the rise of insecurity, fears about the return of protectionism) noted in comments on Ursula of Krynska, an economist at Bank Millennium.
capital Expenditures in Poland decrease in annual terms, the year-on-year, already from three quarters. At the same time accelerating the growth of consumer spending, associated with good marketing boom in the labour market as well as software Family 500+, there was still strong enough to offset the effects of the investment collapse.
- Prospects for economic growth in the next few quarters and not too optimistic. Growth is not sustainable, that bad its durability. According to the data for the third quarter, is unlikely to achieve a growth rate of 3%. during the whole year. Acceleration in 2017r. will depend on the investments that are encumbered, however, is certain risk – assessed Ursula of Kranjska.
In 2017, the absorption of EU funds this would happen, public investment and the construction sector back on growth path; macroeconomic assumptions for “Dynamo” of the budget still realistic, the Ministry of Finance said in the comments to Tuesday GUS data.
GUS filed on Tuesday that gross domestic product seasonal niewyrównany (in constant prices średniorocznych the previous year) increased in the third quarter of this year actually 2.5 percent. compared to the same period of the previous year. Economists in the so-called market consensus had expected GDP growth of 2.9 percent. from year to year.
“there is still No detailed data on the structure of GDP growth in the third quarter, but the published data concerning the GDP indicators shows that the main growth factor was the consumption of an individual. In this place it should be emphasized the very good situation on the labour market, i.e. high real dynamics of the wage bill and very low level of unemployment, which are close to good consumer sentiment contributed to private consumption. It seems, however, that consumer demand may not reveal the full effects of the program, the Family 500+,” the Ministry said in comments on GUS.
According to authorities at a low level remained, and the dynamics of capital expenditures, which showed very weak results of the construction in III kw. “The outcome of the investment is mainly the effect of the transition from old to new financial perspective. This effect is noticeable in all countries of our region. In 2017. the absorption of EU funds, it will happen, and as a result, public investment and the construction sector back on growth path”, – evaluates the MF.
“the macroeconomic indicators are based on the law on the budget for 2017 (GDP growth of 3.6 percent. and inflation is 1.3 percent.) still real, that confirms also published yesterday, the projection of the NBP. The level of GDP in the EU and EA were, respectively, 1.8 percent. and 1.6 percent. higher than a year earlier. Against this background, GDP dynamics in Poland (i.e. 2.1 percent. r/r) should be considered worthy,” he added.
the Finance Ministry said that despite the slowdown in GDP, tax revenues for the first nine months significantly higher than a year earlier. The nominal growth of VAT revenues more than 7 percent. and this is much higher than macroeconomic indicators, – MF – suggests that the actions o the tax system is already bringing results. (PAP)
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