2015-03-18 14:10 [Photo: sjlocke / iStockphoto] 
Update 15:26
Industrial production in Poland increased in January by 4.9 percent compared to the same month last year. At the same time, retail sales were down 1.3 percent y / y. Taking into account the deflation of our purchases were, however, higher by 2.4 percent. Sales figures were much worse than economists expected and the worst in more than two years.
According to information published by the CSO in January, industrial production in Poland increased by 4, 9 percent y / y. Meanwhile, market forecasts point to an increase of 4.0 percent y / y. This result was better than reading from the previous month, when production was higher by only 1.7 percent y / y. January against industrial production in February grew by 1.3 percent.
Source: GUS
As the economists BZ WBK in today’s analysis, “in February, we had to deal with a neutral effect working days weather conditions similar to last year, so production data reflect the actual trend, improving thanks to strong domestic demand and a recovery in the euro area. Strong growth in car production supports pointers. “
According to the CSO in relation to February of last year, an increase in sold production was reported in 24 (out of 34) among industry in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products (18.9 percent), computer, electronic and optical products (16.0 percent), electrical equipment (13.8 percent) and motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (13.5 percent).
WIG20 continued growth started with the beginning of this week. In …
The decline in production, compared with February last year occurred in 9 divisions, among others mining of coal and lignite (-16.5 percent), manufacture of beverages (-5.5 per cent) and in the production and supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-1.8 percent).
buy for less … but more
Poor results were recorded in February, when it comes to retail sales. According to the CSO, it fell by 1.3 percent y / y (in current prices). Market forecasts indicating no change compared with the previous year. In January 2014, the growth of retail sales growth amounted to 0.1 percent y / y.
This poor performance was not more than two years – in December 2012. Sales fell by 2.5 percent.
Source: GUS
In the case of retail sales, however, need to take account of changes in prices. In February, the inflation rate fell by 1.6 per cent., Mainly due to lower by 7.6 percent. fuel prices.
Please note that at the same time by the CSO statistics in constant prices (including deflation) shows an increase in sales of 2.4 percent. y / y.
– Due to deflation are more important data about the real rate of growth – the report says economist of BZ WBK. This increase recently estimated the 4 percent. y / y., and without taking into account the deflation forecast BZ WBK was already 1 percent.
According to Maciej Reluga, chief economist at BZ WBK, the difference between the real administered by the bank and the nominal growth rate due to the inclusion of lower prices retail, rather than the official inflation rate. Retail price in February fell by 3 per cent., While the official consumer deflation was 1.6 percent.
The biggest increase in retail sales was recorded in February for the pharmaceutical and cosmetics (8.8 per cent. Increase in sales y / y ) as well as newspapers and books (17.3 per cent. y / y). About 12.0 percent y / y fuel sales decreased as a consequence of the low market prices.Data on sales surprised in minus
– When it comes to production, the difference is not very large, the data is not bad, as robust growth – says Piotr Bielski, senior economist of BZ WBK. – In particular, the manufacturing sector will see a big improvement. Worsened the result of mining and energy production (good weather – less wear). If omitted mining and energy, the increase in the processing of almost 7 percent. This confirms., that the demand for our products abroad is good. Previous data on exports also attested. Growing interest in our products. Orders from Germany and Western Europe are coming up.
– For this sale disappointed – says Bielski. – We were hoping for growth, as consumers have more money, as shown by the statistics yesterday wages. Public sentiment also improved. But today’s retail sales figures do not show it – says.
– The weak retail trying to see problems with cross-border trade – says Grzegorz Ogonek, an economist at ING BSK. – In the case of depreciation of the currencies in Ukraine and Russia, it can cause a lot of disequilibrium. I wonder, however, whether the data can mean something more, or incomplete opening of the people on consumption – he added.
The CSO does not include small shops and … Allegro
– The question of whether consumption is weak indeed, whether the data of the Central Statistical Office retail sales do not reflect trends in the economy? – Wonders Bielski. – GUS present some disadvantages, because they do not include the smaller stores, employing less than 9 persons and including parts of the Internet (including Allegro). If consumers buy in smaller stores, the CSO data can not capture.
– slightly different Eurostat data shows without missing small shops. Last month, Eurostat reported a 7.4 percent increase in retail sales, and GUS-ish rate was at 0.1 percent. On the other hand, Eurostat does not include car sales … The question is, where the more trust you? – Wonders Bielski. – For example, the Central Statistical Office owska retail sales were weak in the fourth quarter, but private consumption in GDP was shown a lot higher. The question is whether consumers are spending less, whether it is a problem with the measurement? Or is it to change the structure of purchases and people pass on to the small shops, or online? – He added.
What next level?
– Optimism on consumer demand, these data do not raise – says Bielski. – While retail sales figures are weird, because interest rates down, pay up, the mood is improving, so I do not see the reason why people would not have to buy.
Looking at the two indicators, together with the rate of production industrial, but you can see that the chances for GDP growth close to 3 percent this year. So far, we forecast slightly below this level.
– Improved years have accustomed us that retail sales ahead of indicators of private consumption, now the situation has probably changed – says Grzegorz Ogonek, an economist at ING BSK. – However, you can count on the fact that private consumption will continue to support GDP.
– At this stage, it is not the basis for revisions of GDP for this year – says Ogonek. – Temporarily perceive it this way that the awkwardness just another macro data: last year we saw a split between economic growth and inflation, now there is the same between the production and retail sales. However, I believe that growth will gradually accelerate during the year, in the last quarter to 4 percent. Read more in Money.pl
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