– Entrepreneurs (Belarusian) lost trillions of rubles of profit, and the purchasing power of Belarusians fell by tens of percent. As a result, highlighted the negative aspects of the economic model of Belarus, which is completely dependent on Russia – economic commentator writes Dzmitry Zajac.
points out that last year tightened two problems: difficulties in production and sales of low profitability. As of December 1 last year in the warehouses of companies subject to the Ministry of Industry was a two-month supply of unsold goods, while a year earlier – półtoramiesięczny.
At the same time, these companies recorded from January to October 2014. Deficit of 1.5 trillion Belarusian rubles (zł 490 million), while in the same period of 2013. achieved a profit of 2.5 trillion rubles (817 million zł).
According to the Belarusian authorities Zajaca resistance before adjusting the exchange rate according to the devaluation of the Russian ruble has led to a sharp strengthening of the Belarusian ruble. While at the beginning of 2013. For the Russian ruble was paid 290 rubles, in mid-December only
180. lose Company
– Such a change in the exchange rate bounced a negative effect on the amount of net profit . During the first 9 months of expenses to pay interest on loans and foreign exchange differences (of 3.6 trillion rubles, or 1.18 billion zł) “ate” a significant proportion of the profits from the sale of production companies (amounting to 3.65 trillion rubles) – Minister of State estimated Alyaksandr industry Aharodnikau in his article for the magazine “Finances, uczot, audit”.
According Zajac’s hard to say how the situation will develop Belarusian industrial enterprises in 2015., because on the one hand, the National Bank in the last days of December greatly accelerated the pace official devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, but on the other hand, businesses are required to sell half of the currency gains at the rate of the central bank, and at the same time to buy it by 20 percent. more expensive due to the introduced by the government in December, a commission from the purchase of currency.
Belarusian economists believe that Russia ’s GDP may fall this year, and then it is difficult to expect an increase in Belarusian exports. – The fall in GDP means both the reduction of production in Russia, as well as the general demand on the Russian market, including the production of Belarus – stressed the scientific director of the IPM Research Center in Minsk Iryna Taczycka.
Economy are dependent on each other
decline in Russia’s GDP would be less noticeable for Belarus if its export market was more diversified. However, according to data from the first 10 months of 2014. More than 92 percent. export companies subject to the Ministry of Industry was getting to the Russian market.
With this introduction of December 20, 30-percent commission on the purchase of foreign currency by individuals and legal (ideas then to 20 per cent.) resulted in an increase in prices of imported goods. “In fact, there has been a devaluation of the Belarusian ruble (). And virtually no one predicted that it will amount to 30 per cent., Even the authorities,” – said Zajac.
Analyst Forex Club in Belarus Waler Pałchouski think that therefore it is difficult to expect the government to maintain the projected rates for the current year, for example. Inflation, which had be 12 percent. It can be as high as experts say 30-40 percent.
The ruble in the wake of the oil is weakening again
Russian ruble weakened again. This is a result of falling oil prices on world markets.
At the opening of the first session of the year on the stock exchange in Moscow dollar currency appreciated in value by more than 3 rubles.
Then I worked a little Russian currency losses. In the morning, for one dollar paid more than 58 rubles, which is over 2 rubles more than the opening of the dance floor.
Russian media have pointed out that their currency cheaper against the falling value of oil on world markets.
TVN24 Business and World / x-news
US crude oil prices increase declines
Oil prices on the stock exchange in New York fuels increase declines, because in this year may be a surplus of raw material – give brokers. Oil barrel West Texas Intermediate, the supply in February, the stock market fuels NYMEX in New York, is valued at US $ 51.40, after discount of 1.29 USD.
Brent for February supply of fuel on the stock exchange ICE Futures Europe London zniżkuje of US $ 1.06 to US $ 55.36 per barrel.
fuel markets continues fight between OPEC and the oil producing countries in the US market share and none of the parties did not intend to give way.
OPEC maintained its limits
In November, OPEC limit the supply of oil remained unchanged at 30 million barrels of oil per day, although the markets is a lot of oil, and the demand for it is not too high.
oil production does not intend to also reduce US producers.
In addition, Iraq’s second-largest oil producer in OPEC, plans to increa se production in January. He announced that the Iraqi oil minister.
Iraq wants to increase oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day. In December, the country exported 2.94 million b / d, the highest since the 80s of the last century.
– Iraq’s oil production is one of the factors that contributed to the surplus of oil on the market – says Homg Sung Ki, an analyst commodity market Samsung Futures Inc. in Seoul.
– The glut of oil on the stock exchanges shall be maintained if demand does not keep pace with supply – he adds.
Friday in New York crude contracts for February grew cheaper by 58 cents to US $ 52.69 per barrel, the lowest since April 2009.
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