Gross domestic product grew in the fourth quarter of last year by 3.1%, and in the whole of 2014. – by 3.3%, analysts predict BZ WBK. Previously, the bank expected GDP growth, respectively 2.9% and 3.2%. 2015. Analysts forecast 3.2% growth.
BZ WBK decided to change the forecast because of the recent publication of data that suggest that the slowdown in GDP growth in the final quarter of last year was relatively mild.
“We raise our GDP forecast slightly, to 3.1% y in the fourth quarter. 2014 and 3.3% on average over the year ( with respectively 2.9% and 3.2%), “- the report says monthly BZ WBK.
According to analysts, the external threats related to the situation in Ukraine and the euro area economy continues to remain valid.
“Domestic demand has become an important driver of GDP growth last year and is likely to remain so in 2015″ – passed it on the bank.
According to the records of budget, GDP growth is projected at 3.3% in 2014. and 3.4% in 2015.
Deflation by the end of the third quarter of 2015.
The declines in fuel prices and lower food prices will mean that deflation will continue in Poland until the end of the third quarter 2015 analysts believe BZ WBK.
“We believe that inflation will remain in the zone below zero by the end of the third quarter of 2015″ – the report says monthly BZ WBK.
In their view, this means that deflation on an annual basis will take more than a year, and inflation will not return to the target set by the National Bank of Polish before the Second sq. 2016. The Monetary Policy Council may – according to them – under the influence of data to cut back in March.
” The scale and length of deflation surprise central bank and can tip the balance towards more monetary easing. We expect a 25 bps cut “- we read in the report.
BZ WBK analysts do not expect But this year, a reduction of more than 50 basis points.
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