Such a decision analyst expects BOS brokerage house Bugaj Luke, who emphasizes that it is only known that the rate will be reduced by half or a quarter of a percentage point. According to the expert, the better will be smaller reduction step.
The analyst added that the main reason for this will be a protracted period of deflation, or a decrease in the general level of prices. Luke Bugaj expects that such forecasts confirm the latest report from the Polish National Bank on inflation and economic growth, which members of the Board to know before you decide on the level of interest.
MPC member: If it were up to me, Predictable interest rates by 25 bp
TVN24 Business and World / x-news
Economists predict a reduction in interest rates
– I will not original, because I think that the Council will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points. – PAP said analyst Piotr Kuczynski Xelion. – In theory, it should be cut by 50 basis points., But our Council can be very conservative – he added. According Kuczynski
reduction of 50 basis points., would be needed because “we now have a currency war.” “Everyone is trying to be like the weakest currency, and the lower the interest rate, the weaker currency,” – he said.
MPC, however, different views and some of its members from the data available wysnuwają conclusion that the rate should be higher, and others that they should be lower. – At this can not help – he noted the expert. Kuczynski
admitted that some members of the Council may pay attention to the situation of the franc and the fear that the high rate cut wi ll not weaken the zloty against the franc too. “But the more we weaken the franc to the euro, including the fear of the Council will be less,” – he stressed. In his opinion, “franc due to the decrease in interest certainly does not rise.”
reduction in interest is unlikely to affect interest rates on loans also because “banks in the already prepared by adjusting WIBOR”. – Now the interest rate on deposits is indeed negligible – Kuczynski noted.
A reduction of at least 25 basis points
Also Kamil Maliszewski DM mBank provides that the MPC will cut rates of “at least 25 basis points.” – There is a risk that this reduction will be greater, but most likely it will be precisely those 25 basis points. – He said.
recalled that the reduction actually announced after the last MPC meeting NBP President Marek Belka, indicating that if an obstacle to cut interest was the instability of the exchange rate. Now – as he said Maliszewski – courses zloty against the euro and the Swiss franc stabilized, so “the biggest argument against the reduction no longer relevant.” In addition, you may find that deflation has not yet reached its bottom, “and the data for February will show an even greater decline”. – These are all arguments for rate cut – DM mBank analyst said. Maliszewski
expressed the opinion that more rate cut will not affect the exchange rate of the euro and the Swiss franc again st the zloty. – If the reduction is about 25 basis points., Can change the course of a few cents if it is higher, it will be difficult to predict, “- he pointed out.” But franc gold rather than 4 out of the question – assessed.
“It will be a one-off cut” Also
Konrad Ryczko of DM BOS believes that “the reduction of 25 basis points. is the most realistic”. – There are strong expectations for further reductions, although it seems to me that it would be a one-time interest rate cut and again switch to the “wait and see” – he said.
analyst pointed out that the latest CSO data, GDP growth, “turned out to be a little better.” – This sentiment utemperowało pending further rate cuts – rated.
his opinion, the change in the interest rate would not have an impact on exchange rates, because “a lot of these changes are already discounted for a long time.” – Something that may affect the gold, it is not the rate cut, but the press conference after the meeting of the Council – said Ryczko.
– If the Council obcięłaby interest rates by 25 basis points. and even announ ced next moves, it could affect the market a little bit – he added.
In Poland, the interest rate is still among the highest in the EU
Interest rates in Poland even after the forecast cut by 25 basis points will belong to the highest in the EU, despite deflation. Lower interest is the lower cost of borrowing money, which would encourage businesses and households to be more active – According to experts.
According to most forecasts, the MPC will cut rates on Wednesday percent. by 25 basis points, which would mean that the NBP reference rate would be 1.75 percent. on an annual basis. Even after the projected reduction of money in Poland will therefore be one of the most expensive in Europe. Meanwhile, in the euro area interest rate refinancing loan from the European Central Bank is 0.05 per cent. In the Nordic countries – Sweden and Denmark – feet are even negative. Low interest rates also keeps the Fed and that from the beginning of the global crisis, ie the end of 2008.
Central banks of the EU countries to lower interest rates, because it is to be a recipe for growth of the European economy and the fight against deflation. Low interest rates are cheaper loans and the assumption of greater consumption, which stimulates the growth of GDP.
Prices continue to fall
According to data published by the CSO in January this year. deflation in Poland amounted to 1.3 percent. Therefore – according to economists – important for the Polish economy will be scheduled on March 4, the Monetary Policy Council decision concerning the level of interest rates. The majority of economists surveyed by PAP expected to be a reduction of 25 basis points – believes that 16 of 22 of them. Four is of the opinion that it will be a reduction of 50 basis points, and the two states that the MPC will leave interest rates unchanged.
Economists believe interest rates down & gt; & gt; & gt; Rafal Antczak
According to Deloitte, the Council may at its next meeting cut rates by 50 basis points. The expert believes that higher interest rates in Poland than in the euro area illustrate the benefits that brings countries have a common European currency.
– In case of being outside the money borrowing costs are higher, and in addition there is the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. I am an advocate of Polish accession to the euro zone for a long time, due to the growing external risks. All countries SMEs do not have internal tools to counter these risks. Playing with interest rates and the exchange rate of the country by foreign investors at the expense of the economy, rather than benefit – PAP said.
Feet in Poland should be lower than in the euro area
He added that it would be advantageous if interest rates were lower in Poland than in the euro area and the exchange rate of the zloty would be more stable than the euro or other currencies. He pointed out that the Scandinavian countries have lower interest rates because they have better fiscal policy pursued. Antczak
stressed that the Polish lower rates mean lower costs of borrowing money, which can encourage greater activity of Polish entrepreneurs and households. – If we have higher economic growth through lower interest rates, it will have upward pressure on prices, not their decline. Interest rates in Poland some time ago should be reduced, because it was clear that we are dealing with low inflation – he said.
A similar opinion was expressed by chief economist Ernest Pytlarczyk mBank. It believes that interest rates should be equal to the level of the ECB. – L ow inflation or even deflation is the subject of global structural character. Not only our economy operates at low or negative growth rates. I estimate that we have plenty of space to cut rates – Poland enjoys a high credit rating, there is no risk of flight of foreign capital. We have similar economic cycle as the euro zone, as well as a similar trajectory of inflation. This allows us to think about equating the level of interest in the vicinity of a “European” level – told PAP economist mBank.
Analysts do not agree
Among the experts, but there are also some that the MPC should not change the level of interest. – I think that in principle we should not further lower interest rates. Deflationary processes, although widespread and persistent already are purely global. Are influenced by external factors. About what is happening now with the prices determined mainly oil importers. The level of our interest in this area do not change, and we will move towards unconventional monetary policy – said in mid-February PAP MPC member Elzbieta Chojna-Duch.
NBP reference rate is currently 2.00 percent. on an annual basis, the lombard rate 3.00 per cent., the deposit rate to 1.00 per cent., and the rediscount rate to 2.25 per cent. Polish interest rates are now at their lowest level in history. The last reduction took place in October ub.r.
PAP, IAR, abo
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