Start of the fourth quarter of this year was not too good for the Polish economy, so economists estimate on Monday, data from the Main Statistical office, concerning, in particular, retail sales and industrial production in October this year.
GUS filed Monday that retail sales at constant prices in October grew by 4.6 percent. on an annual basis and on a monthly basis, 3 percent. While industrial production in October declined by 1.3 percent. rdr, and compared to September fell by 2.5 per cent., in turn, in the production of construction decreased by 20.1 percent. rdr.
Economists in the so-called market consensus expected retail sales growth of 5.4 per cent. rdr and the growth of 1.1 percent. in annual expression.
the Main Raiffeisen Polbank economist Marta Petka-Zagajewska believes that the results of the Polish economy for October, disappointing second and third place were significantly below market expectations. If we were dealing with the second worst result this year.
“Confirmed our fears that, among other things, by factors, calendar year, industrial production may be lower in October than it was a year earlier. The scale of the decline, however, was stronger than our assumptions (…). Data again clearly ciążyły production results that after a month break, came back in obvious differences. Below the notorious mark of the second and third place was, however, also results industrial recycling,” – said the economist.
According to her, the results of retail sales indicate low probability of improvement conditions. “The expected recovery of private consumption still seems to be weaker from assumptions, which means that there will be able to neutralize the weak performance of its investments and potentially net exports” – appreciated.
according to Petki-Zagajewskiej after a disappointing preliminary reading of GDP for the third quarter, Monday’s data are another source of concern about the health of the economy. “In assessing the MPC drawing the situation remains, however, is likely interpreted as time before the person expected to unlock investment stymulowanych EU funds and larger flow of funds from the 500+ for the economy. In this context, still don’t think MPC can be the pronunciation of weak data and to consider lowering interest rates. Data to support, but they, as a rule, the deposits during the expectations at the beginning of monetary policy tightening in Poland,” she added.
economists from BZ WBK pay attention to the next weak data from Polish economy. “Even if the October data were under the negative influence of the smaller number of working days, this indicates a continued weakness in economic activity in the conditions of weak exports and slowdown in investment. Consumption will remain the main factor of the propeller increase, but retail sales also disappointed today,” – said in comments.
“a quarterly Forecasting of the trajectory of GDP at the moment is difficult, since we don’t know the data for previous quarters (after a significant data revision for 2015 GUS). In any case, it seems that reading for the fourth quarter may be lower than 2.5 percent. rdr III meters, and even below 2%. rdr” – believe.
Also, according to the expert of Employers RP Luke Kozlowski-first readings of macroeconomic indicators for October not only suggests that the long-awaited improvement of the situation in the Polish economy in the last quarter of the year still did not come, but, on the contrary, it is further deterioration.
“the retail Sales disappoints, but relatively slightly. Still, with such a good situation in the labour market and the huge financial support for households is 500+, you would expect more. Lower cost producers in annual terms, causing a lot more concern,” – said Kozlovsky.
According to him, it was obvious that the data on the October production will not be especially good, however, a noticeable decline in its values, is a big disappointment and configures pessimistic about the prospects for economic growth in Russia in IV quarter S. G. Noted that some consolation, however, is the fact that, after eliminating seasonal factors, the annual dynamics of production sold was positive and amounted to +1.3 percent.
Kozlowski believes that the results of the retail spread is much smaller than the data about the state of the industry. Noticed that consumers really spent almost 20 percent. more money on clothes, shoes and textiles than a year earlier, but in most other categories, the change in the value of sales was relatively small or, conversely, shrinkage was observed.
“Domestic consumer demand does not look bad, however, is not seen he is so big forces to balance the negative effects of the decline in investment and an unfavorable change in the contribution of net exports to GDP dynamics,” – said the expert.
in Accordance with GUS in September, industrial production grew by 3.2 percent. rdr, while retail sales grew 6.3 percent. rdr.
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