2015-03-03 22:45 Przemysław Lawrowski , an analyst Money.pl Author: Przemysław Lawrowski 
Passionate about financial markets. Submit a long-term investment over short-term speculation. Followers of fundamental analysis, however, does not despise information stemming from technical analysis. Adheres to the theory that the investment decisions emotions are bad counselor.
The situation of the indicators on the WSE is varied. MWIG40 and sWIG80 cope much better with the index groups the largest company. Any information about Wednesday’s rate cut will not lead to a radical improvement in sentiment in the stock market, mainly due to the fact that investors believe such a scenario is highly unlikely.
When you are finished second session this week, WIG20 has a value of 2323 points. Blue-chip index does not play well in the first days of March. For two sessions lost more than 2 percent (from the level of opening on Monday). Building the index value is of little avail, as he is now at the end of January.
We are approaching for this year’s hole, which was called the situation related to the Swiss franc. However, the market should not reach this level, which provides a strong support. In the case of a scenario in which we will continue to slide slowly, you can expect reflections on several points above the level of 2250 points.
Since the beginning of the year a lot better at small and medium-sized companies. MWIG40 is located on a 6-monthly summits, while sWIG80 is the highest in 11 months. This is probably a result of the expected interest rate cuts. It has long been said also that the Polish stock market is already sold out so that in the end must appear growth.
How, then, should be read in the next Monetary Policy Council decision on interest rates? It seems that the possible reduction in the cost of capital in Poland has already been discounted by the market, so in the event of such developments during the Wednesday session, you should not expect a backlash exchanges in this context. However, if interest rates remain unchanged, it will affect small declines in major indices trading, but in this case the big changes for this reason we do not note.
– This is not end of growth for the technology sector.
The situation of the indicators on the WSE is varied. MWIG40 …
The last time the MPC cut interest rates in October last year. Then, the scale of the changes was irregular because the reference rate and rediscount rates have decreased by 50 basis points, the lombard rate by 100 basis points and the deposit remained unchanged.
Money.pl based on NBP
Although recent economic data for the Polish were pretty good, however, there are factors that may determine the cut Wednesday. On Monday, we learned quite a good read PMI from domestic industry. It shows the sentiment of entrepreneurs in the industry. They are tested on the basis of surveys in which managers respond anonymously to questions about orders, sales, purchasing, inventory, employment and prices. Also, the final reading of GDP for the fourth quarter was higher than expected. Year-to-year growth was 3.2 percent compared to the projected increase of 3.1 percent.
On the other hand, we still have deflation in the Polish economy. We should not forget that the main task of the central bank is to maintain price increases around the inflation target of 2.5 percent +/- 1 percent.
The reduction opt recent data on consumer inflation expectations in February of 2015. They believe that in the next 12 months, the price increase will be small. According to the data obtained from a survey conducted by the Central Statistical Office in the first half of February, the average rate of consumer inflation in the next 12 months will be about 0.2 percent.
On Wednesday, you are also a series of data on business sentiment in the service sector. These data will be published for the major economies. Chińczcy will begin, and in the morning there will be publications including from Italy, Germany, the UK and the euro zone. Unfortunately, Markit Economics does not provide the indicator for the Polish sector.
The outlook for European economies are quite optimistic, as is expected for all levels of more than 50 points, which means the development of the sector.
In the afternoon we will know the ADP report for February in the United States, which will be a prelude for Friday’s data from the local labor market. It represents the estimated change in employment in the previous month, the private sector, non-farm payrolls.
In addition to the macroeconomic readings, will be announced on Wednesday, the annual report of Cyfrowy Polsat. The day before the publication of the official results, the company announced it has signed a contract for the transfer of 1.5 billion GB of data.
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