1. Is Greece will pay money to the IMF today?
Probably not. According to government sources Reuters, Greece has not paid today (the deadline passes at the end of June), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the next tranche of debt of € 1.6 billion.
The Greek ministers have said before on several occasions that the Government does not He will have the funds to pay off installment debt to the IMF if no agreement is reached with the creditors and Greece would not get another financial assistance. – After negotiations with Greece’s international creditors broke down last weekend, it has become a formality that Athens will not be able to pay installments – says Reuters.
2. What will this mean for Greece?
Nothing really. – Technically, no payment will be that they will not receive from the IMF next funding, but it does not mean bankruptcy or exit from the euro zone – says Tomasz Wisniewski, a specialist from TMS Brokers.
Without additional loan from the International Monetary Fund, the Greek government probably will block the transfer of all or a portion of the benefits in Greece. – It is difficult to clearly say when it will happen, because the Greeks are known for their creative accounting and nobody really knows how many have the money. Just mention the falsified data on the budget deficit at a time when we entered the euro zone, or when the bailout to rescue the country’s financial crises – says Wisniewski.
3. Why is there no payments to the ECB is much more dangerous for Greece?
Greece must return to the European Central Bank (ECB) July 20, much more than the IMF, as many as 3.5 billion euro.
Why is there no payment it is much more dangerous for the government Ciprasa? Probably because it would result in cutting off funding program for Greece, the Greek banks, which for years are dependent on the ECB, and thus a complete paralysis of the Greek financial system.
But that’s not all. – The European Central Bank is the money the countries belonging to the euro zone. Failure to pay the debt niósłby consequences for political as opposed to the money coming from the IMF, which largely do not have a specific source and to represent the entire developed world (with the largest share of the US) – explains the expert from TMS Brokers.
4. Who lurks a lack of agreement?
This is one of the easiest answer. Russia. Alternatively, China. That is why Jean Claude-Juncker has offered the Greeks a settlement last resort and is still waiting for a written reply by the end of the day.
– We do not know yet whether it will meet with the approval of Ciprasa. We suspect that such attempts and proposals ‘last chance’ will be a few more. Let us remember that the loan option may well be to leave the Chinese or the Russians, who are very eager to join the game, putting in check the Troika (European Commission, IMF, ECB) – says Tomasz Wisniewski.
checked the IMF, The ECB and the European Commission would be a political triumph for Putin, who from the very beginning of the crisis the game to break the Union. If that would happen, Greece would have to return to its previous currency the drachma.
5. Is a return to the drachma make sense?
In the long term, no. – Profitability return to the drachma is the thing that does not want to know any prominent person from Brussels or Frankfurt – says Wisniewski. This would be a clear signal to other countries such as Spain or Portugal, that remain in the euro zone and serfdom Trinity is harmful and unnecessary. And that could lead to the unimaginable political consequences.
But for now let’s leave politics and let’s go back to the same drachma. As her strength rysowałaby up against the euro? Very miserable. – At the beginning of the drachma probably would be worth the proverbial handful of shells, but it worked to partly for the benefit of the Greek economy based largely on tourism – the expert believes. It’s hard to imagine a situation that in the face of danger in the Arab countries and very low prices in Greece, tourists do not rzuciliby to vacation in Hellas.
Drachma would in the long run a millstone around their legs. – At the beginning we anticipate a huge sell-off, as much as 30-40 percent. against the dollar – says in Bloomberg Neil Jones of Mizuho Bank in London. Although weaker currency would give the Greek economy a chance for growth through increased exports and more attractive for foreign investors, all of these benefits would be crossed by the increase in the cost of financing the Greek debt (weak drachma would affect the trading of bonds and the Greek finance receivables in European banks) shall be assessed in turn Valentin Marinov at Credit Agricole.
6. Is the referendum will solve the problem?
It will not solve, if the Greeks do not vote for support for EU proposals. With the support of the Troika of the EU reform package, the government Syrizy will have to reform pensions, raise the VAT for example. On meals in restaurants, and abandon existing plans to increase taxation for corporations.
Rejection of the Union will signal to the Greek Prime Minister that may sit down at the negotiating table and renew their demands for which today there is no consensus. For this among other things to replace short-term, expensive loans from the ECB on the long-term, cheaper loans from the IMF.
7. In what they are playing Prime Minister Cipras?
In very dangerous. In yesterday’s television appearance Greek prime minister urged his countrymen to reject in a referendum on July 5 all the conditions for foreign assistance. – This will strengthen our bargaining power and will be a strong support at the EU negotiating table – he argued.
A completely different opinion is European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. On Monday, he urged Greeks to vote for the package presented by the European Troika, which assumes m.in .. the fight against corruption and the harmonization of VAT rates (currently 6).
According to Juncker vote “yes” would mean that the Greeks are in favor of the euro area and the EU. – Please Greeks to vote “yes”, because of this referendum will flow positive signal to other euro area countries. If the Greeks say “yes”, then this message will flow from the EU and beyond that Greece wants to stay together with other countries in the euro zone and the European Union – he said. – You should not commit suicide, if you are afraid of death.
Is Greeks oppose their prime minister? That we do not know yet. Most of the inhabitants of Hellas advocates, however, for staying in the EU and the euro area.
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