Franková swing, PLN no gain in QE – Banker

Franková swing, PLN no gain in QE – Banker

Monday and Tuesday fluctuations in pairs of the franc is still effect the surrender of the Swiss National Bank and the element of finding a new balance. The market remains volatile and will remain so – with the current movement does not reach out applications, short-term fluctuations that can be maintained – says Marcin Kiepas, head of research Admiral Markets.
 

 

 

  

 

 

– It was only a few weeks, when the situation really calm down, you will be able to draw conclusions on the future of the franc. Meanwhile, confidence in the SNB is limited. Carefully podchodźmy the Swiss assurances that the bank could intervene again. These interventions will not be effective – says Marcin Kiepas. – Of course, the SNB will be booked opportunity to play on the market – but only if the EUR / CHF parity level significantly break and will be a threat of further declines. In the current situation, the assurances are only verbal attempt to maintain the course.

 

– US monetary policy and, therefore, the situation of the US dollar remains under big question mark. On the one hand, the Fed is preparing to increase interest rates – which may take place in the summer or early autumn. On the other hand, we have a strong decline in oil prices, which significantly reduces inflation and increases the return to the target, as well as more extreme weather events that can have a negative impact on economic growth. The Bank is so – and investors with him – in ambiguous situations.
 
 

– From the point of view of the markets until investors believe that the rate hike will take place in late summer and autumn, the dollar will gain. If this prospect will begin to recede, it would be the moment in which the dollar would sell – says Marcin Kiepas.

 

 - I do not think the impact of European bond purchases on the zloty was strong. Neither PLN will not be lost to the weakening of the Euro, or the dollar will not – contrary to the last words of Marek Belka – the beneficiary of capital inflows. In the case of EUR / PLN expect fairly stable behavior, while the steam from the franc and the dollar will reflect movements in base pairs, respectively the EUR / CHF and USD / CHF.