In March, shares of Bogdanka designated the almost four-year lows. Recent weeks have brought a slight rebound, however, that gives hope for the return of the Lublin Coal share prices over 100 zł. Much will depend on the financial results which the Bogdanka will publish on Thursday 30 April.
During Tuesday’s session Bogdanka’s shares rose by 1.68%, they pierced also an important barrier 87 zł, which in recent days has been repeatedly resisted, the Lublin Coal could not break through. Securities coal magnate is now the most expensive of eight weeks. Although the company is still far away even to the end of 2013, when it paid for its shares at times even 130 zł, but she moved away from the March lows of 14.2%, which brings hope to change the dominant downward trend of recent months.
One of the most important signposts for the course Bogdanka may be quarterly report, which the company will present on Thursday. A positive surprise, however, can be hard. Firstly, the company has already managed to inform that produced in the last quarter, less carbon than in the same period a year ago. (1.99 million tonnes today vs. 2.24 million tons the year before). In addition, a negative effect may affect coal prices, which are still falling.
– Not including cost savings, lower prices and volumes is lower by approx. 300 million zł year cash level in the company, compared to the assumptions used in publishing the strategy in June 2013 – he said in early April the President of Bogdanka Zbigniew The rate.
The cure for these ills are to be cut capital expenditures and costs. Details of the company is expected to announce shortly after the publication of the report for the first quarter.
– We want to minimize the impact of falling prices and declining volume on financial performance, but cost savings this can not be entirely compensated, so the results this year could be weaker y / y – the president announced rate.
Analysts predict weak quarter
The downturn in year-on-year as analysts predict. Wood & amp; Company expects that Bogdanka for the first quarter of 2015 years 36 million zł will report net profit (-42% y / y) and revenues of 424 million zł (-12% y / y). To carry out these calculations, analysts welcomed the average price of coal at the level of 205 PLN / tonne. Among the main reasons decline analysts mention mainly lower coal prices and lower volumes. However, they see some positive financial side event cost.
– The first quarter traditionally is the second highest in terms of cost. Comparing with the same period a year earlier, the company suspended work on Saturdays – which according to our calculations should lower external service costs about 14% – and limited development. We expect that production costs will amount to 444 million zł, and unit costs will reach 135 PLN / tonne (-11% y / y) – added analysts at Wood & amp; Company.
The same forecast as other offices surveyed by PAP. According to market consensus Bogdanka’s net profit for the first quarter will be in the range of 21 million to 56 million zł zł. In the first quarter of 2014. Lublin Coal generated 62.4 million zł net profit.
Dips already priced?
Shareholders remains can only hope that the bad news already included in the price. For taniejący coal investors may react yet-to-date, the decline in production was, in turn, announced on April 10 that day and it was time for his valued (Bogdanka’s share price fell by 4% then). If the publication of the results, no new corpse did not come out of the closet more important than the results, you may press conference, during which management will discuss measures to allow the company to go through the times a little downturn unscathed.
The publication of the report will take place before Thursday’s session, the board will hold a press conference the same day at 11:30.
Adam Torchała
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