2015-04-19 9:11 [Photo: EAST NEWS / SIPA PRESS] 
Iran owns fourths largest oil fields in the world and this is the 72 percent . of Iranian exports. Introduced in 2012, economic sanctions hit so the most sensitive point. Revenue fell by nearly half. Tehran no secret that in the case of lifting the embargo will want to recover as soon as possible in the market, which will cause further price declines. Most will lose the oil superpower.
Before the introduction of the embargo, Iran was coming over 4 million barrels of oil per day, of which sold abroad some 2.5 million. He was the second exporter of OPEC, and it just ahead of Saudi Arabia. According to the report, the International Energy Agency IEA, as a result of US and EU sanctions against Iran’s income from the sale of “black gold” fell from 93 billion to 33 billion. This is clearly reflected in the Iranian GDP, which in the last two years decreased by 6.0 and 1.7 percent.
In 2014 years, oil production was less than 3 million barrels per day, and exports fluctuated between one million and 1.2 million. According to the calculations by experts from the IEA, Iran loses annually about $ 40 billion as a result of the oil embargo. It is not surprising that Tehran has provided for the lifting of sanctions as soon as possible choking the economy.
In early April, Iran and six world powers – the US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany – Switzerland signed an initial agreement on waking controversial Iranian nuclear program, which was the reason for the restrictions.
The agreement envisages that the restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment will apply for 10 years, and Iran’s uranium enrichment capability will be reduced by more than two-thirds. According to the findings of Lausanne, in return, European and US sanctions against Iran would be lifted gradually. The condition would of course be confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran fulfills the obligations arising from the contract.
| Economy Iran in numbers | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Government | Last reading | Previous reading | Highest value | The lowest value | unit |
| Source: Money.pl based on Trading Economics | |||||
| The ratio of the state budget to GDP | -0.78 | -0.26 | 7.51 | -6 75 | Percent of GDP |
| Public Debt to GDP | 10.63 | 11.78 | 24:14 | 9.19 | Percentage |
| State Budget | -480262.90 | -321790.00 | -19,764.50 | -480262 90 | Billions of Iranian rials (IRR) |
| Credit Score | 15 | ||||
Iran stir in the oil market
The removal of the oil embargo , regardless of whether it will be gradual, will be of paramount importance for the Iranian economy and significant impact on oil prices. Estimates Bank of America Merrill Lynch in its latest report “Global Energy Weekly”, not counting the sales of already stored and waiting for the shipment, Iran is able to increase exports by about 650 thousand. barrels per day in just six months after the lifting of sanctions. – We have learned to build walls to protect themselves, to protect the banking system and … The completion of the works is November 2016 year.
Thanks Iranian exports increase to 2 million barrels per day in the middle of 2016 years and directly affected the oil prices, could reduce the value of futures contracts as much as 5 to $ 10 per barrel.
“The potential return to the market of 700 thousand. barrels per day of Iranian production within the next year makes us therefore convinced that the average price of US WTI in 2016 will amount to $ 57 per barrel,” – the report says the US bank.
– Regardless of the circumstances we reduce our market share even one barrel – declared in November last year, the Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh oil.
The International Energy Agency IEA estimates Iran’s total production capacity to 3 6 million barrels per day, while in February 2015 years Tehran produced 2.85 million barrels per day. That means about 760 thousand. additional barrels per day. As estimated by the Institute of International Finance, the agreement means that this year’s GDP will grow Iran by 5 percent., And the failure of the talks will affect the fall by a further 1.2 percent.
Iranian oil will hit the pockets of Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia
Although no one expects to return production to the level before the Islamic Revolution of 1979, when Iran was coming 6 million barrels per day, it would strengthen the position of Tehran on the oil market worries largest oil producers.
According to US analysts from the Energy Information Agency, the effects of the lifting of sanctions can be felt as early as this year, because Iran has reserves of about 30 million barrels of oil, including accumulated tankers. So there is nothing to prevent the signing of the agreement as soon as he could start a nuclear Tehran to release stocks, preparing the market for its raw material extraction after the assumed increase in the next year.
The Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has already announced that his country is not going to reduce the extraction of “black gold”. The Saudis do not hide that this movement has to do with Iran, which is a result of sanctions firmly distanced. In the end, now their rival in the struggle for influence in the Middle East back in the game.
Back Iran to the free market for oil may also affect the US, the current leader in the oil and gas production, by exploring unconventional. However, the US Department of Energy (DoE) said that shale oil production falls in May of this year by 57 thousand. barrels per day. This is the first time that the DoE predicts a decline in production of oil from shale, and the publication of monthly data began in 2013 yet.
Extraction of these reserves are more expensive than conventional OPEC countries and Russia. According to the latest EIA forecast in April, US oil production is true to rise to 9.37 million barrels per day, but from June begins to decrease, in September to fall to 9.04 million barrels, and at this level is to remain for the next 1.5 years . In addition, the fall in prices of a barrel of oil reduces the viability of exploiting deposits of oil and gas tight.
Petroleum already became cheaper by 3.5 percent. Per barrel paid a little over $ 55. According to analysts, the market reacted so, because the atomic arrangement means that on Iran sanctions will be lifted.
The effects of a further reduction in oil prices, however, will feel the most Russia, whose economy is also based largely on raw materials. Until recently, it was estimated that on a depreciating country crude Putin may even lose the equivalent of 1.2 percent. GDP, if prices remain at $ 90 per barrel. Currently, world oil prices fell to around $ 55 per barrel. Russia, to fit in the plan expenditure, the oil needs to be at least $ 100 per barrel.
Iran gas instead of the Russian Union?
Petroleum, however, Russia is not the only problem. With the abolition of sanctions on Iran, Europe will then attempt to become independent of Russian gas, turning again toward Tehran – analysts said the Energy Information Agency.
The Union has long been looking for an alternative to the dominant position of Gazprom. In Brussels the sidelines of the country recognized the possibility of the ayatollahs. Iran may therefore be long-term solution for energy security community.
According to the International Energy Agency, Tehran has a significant potential for growth in gas production. IEA estimates, by 2020 the country could bring up to 215 billion cubic meters, which will allow him to export 35 billion annually to.
However, analysts dampen enthusiasm. According to their calculations, to create the conditions for the supply of Iranian gas to Europe on a large scale need up to 8 years after the lifting of sanctions.
Hands blurred Germany and China
years of sanctions, which are borne by the country’s economy, Iran has a lot of catching up to do in the field of energy sector, the oil industry, in the mining, chemical and petrochemical industries, as well as outdated technology and aerospace. With the abolition of restrictions on the Iranian market will be able to return European concerns, including Siemens. Tehran will also receive access to European investment and technology.
– German companies are waiting in the starting blocks – convinces quoted “Deutsche Welle” political scientist Matthias Küntzel. Estimates of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce, Iran is active almost 6 thousand. small and medium-sized businesses. Her representative says that the Germans after the lifting of sanctions can count on a job order of seven billion euros.
Currently, the trade turnover between the two countries EUR 3 billion. Demand for German technology is especially the energy sector – German experts argue. But upgraded or built from scratch to be too refineries or pipelines. Existing come mostly from Germany.
Economic contacts between Iran and Germany were suspended after the Islamic revolution and the period of sanctions imposed by the community, but the only existing in Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country was founded by Siemens and AEG plans-Telefunken . German companies have built a lot of other important industrial and – according to “Deutsche Welle” – hope to return after the lifting of sanctions.
However, the main beneficiary of the agreement with Iran may prove to be China. This may confirm recent political movements Tehran. According to the Iranian news agency IRNA Zangeneh minister flew to Beijing at the invitation of Chinese enterprises, related to the oil industry interested in Iranian market.
– China implements a variety of investments in Iran, and we we go to Beijing to solve the problems associated with the project – told reporters Deputy Minister of International Relations and Trade in the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum Amir Zamaninia.
The value of trade between Iran and the Middle Kingdom in 2014 reached $ 51 billion. Chinese companies involved in the construction of the subway in the capital ayatollahs, as well as railway lines. Won a number of tenders for the construction of infrastructure and oil, but froze work because of the threat of US military action.
China, where the market remained one of the few open to Iran, when applied to the country of the UN’s sanctions 2010, imports of Iranian oil. Iran is the third of the major suppliers to China. Imports from Iran covers about 12 percent. Chinese demand for oil.
Restrictions West also covered international loans. As a result of the sanctions measures financial institutions were frozen, and the largest bank Bank Mellat Iran has been accused of supporting nuclear programs and funding terrorist activities.
The Union and the United States banned investment and cooperation with Iran’s energy sector, and also froze the assets Iran’s central bank. The repeal of these sanctions will simplify the accounts of the oil – yet parties used a third-world countries, banks
Understanding the details of the nuclear deal with Iran is to take place on 30 June and then to be seen whether and to what extent will be lifted Western sanctions against Iran.
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