Government: GDP growth in 2015. Will amount to 3.4 per cent., In 2016. – 3.8 percent … – Virtual Poland

This year, the Polish GDP will grow by 3.4 per cent., And next year by 3.8 per cent .; unemployment rate this year is expected to be 8.2 per cent., in 2016. – 7.6 per cent .; deflation in 2015. is expected to be 0.2 percent. – Provides approved Tuesday by the government, “The Convergence Programme. Update 2015″.

In the next two years, our economy has to grow at a rate of 3.9 percent. and 4 percent.

The update of the convergence program is part of the adopted Tuesday by the government, “Multi-Year Financial Plan for the years 2015-2018″ prepared by the Ministry of Finance.

As Government Information Centre reported in the statement after the meeting of the government, after a significant decline in inflation at the end of 2014. Also this year, inflationary pressures will be very limited, which is associated with a decrease in oil prices and low food price rises . As a result, this year we should expect average deflation of 0.2 per cent., And in subsequent years will gradually accelerate inflation and CPI grows at 1.7 percent. 2016 in., 1.8 percent. in 2017. and 2.5 per cent. 2018.

The document stated that in 2017. Inflationary pressures will be further limited by the planned from the beginning of 2017. return rate of VAT to 22 per cent. with 23 percent. and up to 7 percent. with 8 percent.

MF admitted that being outside the control of the government weakens deflation state revenues, especially VAT. This is due to the fact that the main part of the VAT base is private consumption (including fuel where price declines were relatively large). At least lower the price level will affect the revenue from excise duty.

“The improvement of the economic situation, including a marked acceleration in investment growth will translate into an improvement in the labor market. It is expected that in 2015. Number of persons employed will increase by an average of 1.1 percent. In the next This growth will be between 0.7 per cent. in 2016. to 0.5 per cent. in 2018. In this regard, it is estimated that in 2015. unemployment rate drops to 8.2 percent. In 2016. reach a level of 7.6 per cent., to 2018. decelerate to 6.5 percent. ” – Said in a statement.

It was noted that in the last year, as a result of the consolidation of public finances, and thanks to a favorable public finances of the structure of economic growth, headline deficit of the general government has been reduced by 0.8 points. percent. and amounted to 3.2 percent. GDP, compared to the recommended by the Ecofin Council target of 3.9 percent. GDP. The Ministry of Finance believes that given incurred in the first half of 2014. Pension reform costs in the amount of 0.4 percent. GDP, adjusted deficit (comparable with countries that have not implemented the system of pension capital) would be 2.8 percent. Thus would fall to the level of expectation allowing photos of Polish excessive deficit procedure.

“Fiscal consolidation in 2014. Included the reduction of expenditure and an increase in revenues of the government. The key factor determining the level of expenditure in Poland and, therefore, fiscal policy is stabilizing expenditure rule, which for the first time used in a binding manner during the work on the budget law for 2015. In the years 2015 to 2018 is expected to further consolidation of public finances “- announced.

The Ministry of Finance predicts that the public finance deficit will fall to 2.7 percent. Of GDP in 2015., To 2.3 percent. Of GDP next year, to reach 1.8 percent. Of GDP in 2017. And 1.2 percent. Of GDP in 2018.

“After the excessive deficit procedure Poland becomes subject to the provisions of the preventive part of the Stability and Growth Pact, under which fiscal policy objective will be to medium-term objective (MTO), which is a structural deficit 1 per cent. of GDP. Achieving and maintaining MTO debt government well below the reference value of 60 per cent. of GDP will be ensured in particular through compliance stabilizing expenditure rule “- informed.

The Ministry provides a document that in 2015. Private investment will increase in real terms by 6.6 per cent., In the following years to achieve a growth rate of 7.6 per cent., 8.3 per cent. and 8.2 percent. As a result, the share of private investment in GDP at the end of 2018. Increase to 17.4 percent. Factor supporting the growth of private investment – next to the expected improvement in the external environment – is to be the continuation of the cost of capital is relatively low due to low interest rates and as a result of the program Polish investments.

“The Ministry of Finance is also working on the introduction of analytical income tax deduction for expenses related to the incurring of expenditure on research and development” – informed. “In the case of income tax from individuals in the entire forecast assumes no change in the law in the section on tax thresholds and the flat tax deductible costs and decreasing the amount of tax” – stated.

MF document assumes that in the period 2015-2019 will maintain the trend appreciation of the zloty. “Strengthening of the Polish currency should favor the strong fundamentals of the Polish economy, including small current account deficit, the inflow of foreign investment and a significant decrease in the risk premium associated with the reduction of imbalances in public finances” – written. It was stressed that it is important for the exchange rate will be output Polish excessive deficit procedure.