“In 2016,. Is expected to allocate additional funds to pay for groups of employees, which – as a rule – since 2010. Were covered by + freeze +. As a result, additional costs for the state budget will amount to about 2 billion zł” – written in assumptions.
In a document prepared by the Ministry of Finance indicated that the nominal growth of average gross salary in the enterprise sector will amount to 3.8 percent. In line with the average employment in the national economy will grow by 0.8 percent. (Compared to 0.9 per cent. In the year.), And the registered unemployment rate at the end of 2016. Will amount to 9.8 percent. (The projected ratio of 10.5 per cent. At the end of this year).
According to the document, to which the PAP reached, next year the average gross wage in the national economy will grow by 3.6 percent in nominal terms. (In real terms by 1.9 per cent.) And will amount to 4 thousand. 55 zł.
The Ministry of Finance expects private consumption in 2016 – along with the expected improvement in consumer sentiment index due to better economic conditions – will accelerate to 3.7 per cent. with 3.4 percent. in 2015. It was assumed that in 2015. Private investment will increase in real terms by 6.6 per cent., but in the next year to achieve a growth rate of 7.6 percent.
“It is expected that the share of exports in GDP will continue to grow, though at a much slower rate. The real growth rate of exports will remain above the growth rate of export markets and will amount to 5.7 per cent. In 2015. And 5 , 9 per cent. in 2016., the result of which will increase the share of exports in GDP to the historically high level of 48.1 percent. ” – Written in the assumptions. Real growth in imports will be higher than the growth of exports and in the period 2015-16 will be 6.9 percent respectively. and 6.1 percent.
The government also expects to maintain the appreciation of the zloty. “The strengthening of the Polish currency should favor the strong fundamentals of the Polish economy, including small current account deficit, the inflow of foreign investment and a significant decrease in the risk premium associated with the reduction of the public finance imbalance. It is assumed that it is important for the foreign exchange rate will last listed factors, including Polish output of the excessive deficit procedure “- noted.
The assumptions indicated that while constructing the state budget for 2016 the government, taking detailed decisions about the direction of spending the money from the budget, will have inter alia, the current and projected macroeconomic situation, the current legal framework, as well as the implementation of the announcement of the Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz exposé of October 2014.
In contrast, the major determinant of the amount of state budget expenditures for 2016 will be stabilizing expenditure rule sets absolute limit spending. Its countercyclical nature is conducive to fiscal consolidation “in the medium term without jeopardizing the prospects of development of the country.”
“The expected output by Poland of the excessive deficit already this year, will not automatically mean a loosening of fiscal discipline. The Government has consistently because such fiscal policy, which is always adapted to the current economic situation. The coming financial year and subsequent years will pass so primarily under the sign of further efforts to achieve Poland’s MTO, ie. a structural deficit of 1 percent. GDP “- written.
It was noted that expected in 2016. moderate increase in the prices of consumer goods and services will positively influenced the level of tax revenue.
The proposals macroeconomic indicators intended to prepare the budget of the government is to submit by June 15 the Tripartite Commission for Social and Economic Affairs. (PAP)
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