Who should be the president of the NBP (POLL) – Puls Biznesu

Throughout the world people responsible for the cost of money are divided ornitologicznie on: doves and hawks. First it advocates a more lenient monetary policy, which no hurry to raise interest rates. The second group are predators. In their dictionaries cut the cost of money is rare, were the first to want to raise the foot, and the majority wants to lower them, it’s hard to count on their support.

In about half a year comes to replace eight of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). The changes will miss only George Osiatyński, who will remain in office until 2019., Because two years ago, had just started year term (with the nomination of President), replacing resigning Zyta Gilowska. In January and February 2016. Sejm and the Senate indicate the three members of the MPC, and the president of two.

It is hard to guess what will be the political orientation of a parliamentary majority. You can now instead be tempted to forecast, who may appoint the president, for which modeling MPC will warm-up against a much more important task – indicating in the middle of next year, the new president of the Polish National Bank (NBP). We asked for her 11 economists, for whom follow events on the street. Swietokrzyska this bread, and the future shape of the monetary authorities ignites their imagination. Everyone was able to identify several names.

With the MPC to NBP

Favourite to chair the President is the one in our survey reigns supreme. Adam Glapiński, now one of the MPC members. His term on the board ends in mid-February 2016., Then nothing will stand in the way to Andrzej Duda offered him the presidency of the central bank. To the council went back to the will of the former head of state Lech Kaczynski, straight from the seat of his advisers. In addition to lecturing at SGH throughout his political career and business orbited around the Kaczynski brothers, he was a deputy and minister associated with the Agreement Center and Movement for Reconstruction Polish, president of Polkomtel, he also served, among others, on the board of KGHM.

– Adam Glapiński seems to be one of the most likely candidates, although the appointment of the president will depend largely on how the parliamentary majority will look like autumn. If she had her PiS, there will be obstacles to became president of the National Bank of Poland – says one bank analyst who wish to remain anonymous.

Macha gentleness

Economists are, however, quite divided on the remaining presidential MPC members, though, and here you can see a pattern. Indications are mainly people who already exercised some public functions during the rule of Law and Justice, or in recent years, they sympathized with this party. According to experts, there is also almost certain that the successor Andrzej Kazmierczak and Adam Glapinski, which the president must indicate to 16 February 2016. Will be people with mild bias to monetary policy.

– I think that will be the candidate profile rather pigeons. Therefore, there is a risk that the starting point of the cycle of interest rate hikes may be delayed – says Adam Antoniak, an economist at Bank Pekao.

The favorites for now are two: prof. Żyżyński and Stanislaw Jerzy Kluz. The first currently sits in parliament and is a member of the PiS parliamentary club. There has been speculation in the media that soon will be credited to office a new president. The second most frequently indicated that episodic finance minister in the government of Law and Justice (slightly more than two months for the post) and former chairman of the Financial Supervision Commission, including the recommendation of Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s party. According to economists, without opportunities are also not Cezary Mech, a former deputy finance minister in the government of PiS, now the head of the Agency for Social-rating or Ryszard Bugaj, adviser to Lech Kaczynski, a member of the Institute of Economic Sciences (PAN was already tipped to MPC six years ago). In the race you can also count Malgorzata Zaleska, now the NBP board member whose term expires in early August. Other candidates tipped by analysts gathered one, two voices, and for most economists their journey is less obvious. Therefore, it is premature to forecast attitude across the board the new term. This will be done only after the October elections. Then it will be known whether the MPC apart from a pigeon or adopt a hawkish policy bias.