balanced decision based on facts, not on uncertain scenarios – so economists judge decided to maintain the rating of Polish, announced on Friday by Fitch. As, however, point out in an interview with money.pl, the real test for the credibility of our country will take place in the autumn, when we know the draft budget for 2017 years, and can appear on the specifics of the pension reform and support for frankowiczów.
According to the announced on Friday late evening assessment, the creditworthiness of our country remained unchanged at “A minus” – is 7. result in a 22-point scale. Agency maintained a neutral perspective.
Although Fitch analysts said that the economy is in good condition, pointed to the reduced predictability in economic policy, which “increases the risk of deterioration in the economic outlook and fiscal”. The assessment agency that is primarily about the announcement of the project of conversion of foreign currency loans.
The finance minister Paul Szałamacha rating on Monday, the rating agency Fitch more than the Standard & amp; Poor’s “guided by economic data and less emotions and politics.” – He looks mainly at what is happening in the economy, rather than on some of your judgments – Szałamacha said.
Maintaining the rating expected money.pl polled by analysts, but at the same time the vast majority felt that Fitch changes outlook to negative because of the risk that has to carry the government’s economic policies, and in particular the announcement of lowering the retirement age, help for frankowiczów, and plans to reach for the rest of the money accumulated in pension funds.
as it turns out, the case lower the retirement age to 65 years for men and 60 for women, which was one of the main election promises of Justice, encountered strong resistance within the government. According to the information of “Rzeczpospolita” and “Gazeta Wyborcza”, the introduction of the condition 35- and 40-year-old seniority demand Mateusz Morawiecki, Paul Szałamacha and Jaroslaw Gowin. Pension reform will be the subject of government debate on Tuesday.
Pseudozaawansowane analysis
– always knocks me doing the “story” by analysts. We live in a country which is near G20, in which some things are calculated, the data there, you can refer to them when they appear – said in an interview with money.pl Rafal Antczak from Deloitte. – Formulation of the general objectives and moonlighting after them pseudozaawansowanej analysis is simply ridiculous – estimates.
– If we are talking about government programs, it must wait until those programs will be formulated; this applies both to frankowiczów, and the retirement age – invites the economist. – until you get a complete government program that will passing the path of legislative, can not on that basis to formulate forecasts, unless someone really wants to build a hypothetical scenarios – says.
Antczak reiterates that negative scenario adopted in January, the S & amp; P, which downgraded Polish. – When this scenario will not work, the agency itself ridiculous merits – says the economist. – Such an assessment, however, have much more serious consequences, because it’s not a joke, evaluation analysts have an impact on the situation on the financial market – he said.
The economist believes that credit rating agencies should have greater responsibility for arketing their judgments . – In 2015 a mistake, this time extremely optimistic scenario valuation of instruments based on mortgages subprime, S & amp; P paid to the US Justice Department and 19 states a penalty in the amount of 1.5 billion dollars – like Antczak.
– the political Economy is different than the theoretical economics. In political economy must distinguish between theory and reality, which is often different from the assumptions that are assumed on the basis of unrealized premises – said Rafal Antczak. – The best example is the behavior of three rating agencies in the case of Polish. One has escaped like a filip from hemp, and the other two carefully watched reality and evaluate the facts and figures – he says.
Autumn will be hot and decisive
– I do not the impression that the government “got away”, because in my opinion the decision Fitch is very balanced – says money.pl economist Marek Zuber. – For now, we move in the area of the announcement, drawing scenarios of what will happen in Poland. this is really going on little, of course, outside of 500+ that means spending money. however, we need to know the specifics concerning the announced reforms – shows.
Zuber believes that if the credit rating is an assessment of ability to repay debt, is “considering that this year has provided funding of 500+, and has outlined funding in subsequent years, it is still too early to lower the rating. “- only when the financing condition in question, you can decide to lower the rating, which indicate that grows risks associated with the country – he argues.
– we do not know whether to September-October there will be a solution related to the reduction of the retirement age or means frankowiczom, but the draft budget for 2017 years there must be, it will be the most important when it comes about what might happen – says Zuber. – Autumn will be hot and decisive when it comes to assessing whether governments PiS cause loosening of fiscal policy and the destabilization of the financial system or not – says the economist.
Referring rating declines Polish, which made the Standard & amp; Poor’s in January, Marek Zuber estimates that the agency “overreacted”. – The more that we went then from level A to level B, which is a very important distinction, taking into account the statutes of the investment many funds, especially pension – he explains.
Double plays Government
– the current condition of the Polish economy and public finances remains relatively good, and this factor apparently prevailed in the latest assessment agency Fitch – says money.pl Lukasz Kozlowski, an economist Employers of Poland. – Government all the time, however, leads a double game, clearly declaring that the election program of Law and Justice will be fully implemented, while also trying to calm the financial markets and the European Commission through continuous to ensure that elementary budgetary discipline will be respected – notes.
He says Kozlowski, rating agencies and other institutions in their assessments “generally does not yet include what is not ultimately a foregone conclusion, and so cuts the retirement age, or program assistance to indebted in Swiss francs.” – Assuming that the implementation of the most precious promises to end the program 500+ Family, maintain the fiscal deficit below 3 percent. Of GDP in 2017. And subsequent years would be difficult, but attainable task – says an expert of Employers RP.
– The decision by a simple reversal of changes in the retirement age would mean while crossing a kind of Rubicon – says Lukasz Kozlowski. – It would be tantamount to come to terms with the restoration of the excessive deficit procedure with all its consequences. In the event that the decision was made that the Stability and Growth Pact will not be respected, disappear last relatively tough barrier for the growth of the deficit Polish public finance sector – warns.
According to Kozlowski, then “you would expect stronger reaction of the rating agencies, discounting thus materialized, and not only the potential risk. ” – Further developments therefore depends primarily on decisions and actions taken by the government itself. If you give them a guarantee of maintaining the fiscal deficit at a moderate level, could probably have been avoided cuts rating – he says.
What would an “variant of the Hungarian”?
In the case of Polish it is possible to repeat the experience of Hungary, where after the first shock – the devaluation of the forint, the stock market crash and the reversal of foreign investors – the situation is stabilized?
– Optional “variant of the Hungarian” would not be at all favorable to the government scenario development situation – makes it clear Lukasz Kozlowski. – Keep in mind that the credit rating of the country was downgraded by leading agencies to the “junk” and only recently begins to raise it. It is true that after the initial wave of criticism caused controversial posunięciami in the area of economic policy has been some stabilization and calming moods, but you have to remember that it was a stabilization at a low level – like an economist.
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