From January to March this year. sold industrial output was 3 percent. higher compared to the same period of the previous. year, when he recorded an increase of 5.3 per cent., while construction output was up 13.3 percent. lower than last year, when he recorded an increase of 3.5 percent.
According to the preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office, industrial production in constant prices (in enterprises employing more than 9 people) was in March. by 0.5 percent. higher than last year (when it recorded an increase of 8.8 per cent.) and by 6.8 per cent. higher than in February. After eliminating the so-called. seasonal factors, sold production of industry was 0.8 percent. higher than a year earlier and about 1 percent. lower than in February.
The increase in production in 23 industrial sectors
Compared to March last year. increase in sold production was reported in 23 (out of 34 ) industry. Most in the production of other transport equipment – by 18.3 percent., Furniture – by 7.4 percent., Computers, electronic and optical products, printing and reproduction of recorded media – at 7.3 per cent., In the manufacture of textiles – about 7 per cent., manufacture of metal products – by 4.3 per cent., of rubber and plastic products – by 4.2 percent., electrical equipment – by 3.8 percent.
The decrease in production, compared with March last year., He starred in 11 divisions. Most in the extraction of coal and lignite – by 14.5 percent. (Compared with an increase of 13.3 per cent. A year ago), department: repair, maintenance and installation of machinery and equipment – by 8.9 per cent., In the production and supply of electricity, gas, steam and hot water – by 6, 1 per cent., in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products – by 5.3 percent. and machinery and equipment – by 2.3 percent.
According to preliminary data from the Office construction and assembly production (in constant prices), which is made of investment and repair, in Poland by construction enterprises employing more than 9 persons in March this year. lower by 15.8 per cent. than the year before (when recorded an increase of 2.9 per cent.), compared with February. however, it was higher by 20.6 per cent. According to GUS, after eliminating the impact of seasonal factors, construction output was up 13.9 percent. lower than in March last year. year and about 3 percent. compared with February this year.
The decrease in production year-on-year was recorded in all construction. Most, because about 21.9 percent. in companies specializing in the construction of buildings and civil engineering – in entities dealing mainly with specialized construction – by 15.7 per cent., and in entities whose primary activity is the construction of buildings – by 10.8 percent ..
fell only sell fuels
In relation to March 2015. fell only fuel sales – by 3.5 percent. The biggest sales growth to March 2015. GUS recorded in the category of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts – 11.9 percent. and other retail sale in non-specialized stores – about 9.7 percent.
The biggest increase was recorded a month-on-month while categories: food, beverages, tobacco products – by 18.6 percent. and other retail sale in non-specialized stores – about 16.9.
The CSO data shows that retail sales in March, measured in current prices, increased by 0.8 percent. on an annualized basis, in monthly terms increased by 14 percent.
“There is no reason to panic”
Monika Kurtek, chief economist Postbank, highlights, that although the March CSO data are weaker than those of last month and market expectations, the need to panic is not.
– We have to take into account a few factors that caused these results and industrial production, and retail, and construction and assembly production were so weak in March. This is the effect on the one hand shifts on the calendar when it comes to the number of working days in the previous months. It had a very big impact on how developed these dynamics during that time. We also in this year’s early Easter, where industrial production, therefore, to a greater extent was implemented in the first months of the year and not in March – explains the economist.
The March data GUS allow the summary of the first quarter this year.
– Industrial production in the first quarter of this year increased by 3 percent. yoy, compared to 6 percent. recorded in the fourth quarter of 2015. Much less it was in construction. Production fell here by more than 13 percent. annualized, where in the fourth quarter of 2015. This decrease was only 1.5 percent. In contrast, a factor that could give rise to optimism, data on retail sales in the first quarter of this year, because in real terms the sales grew by 4.4 per cent., Which is the same as in the fourth quarter of 2015. – Selects Monika Kurtek.
He concludes economist, on Tuesday CSO data, testify to the fact that we had a slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter of 2016. but it was not so deep.
– And if this there is information that the pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2015. was much higher than before the Central Statistical Office showed, because the dynamics was revised to 4.3 percent. from 3.9 per cent., it may be that the pace of economic growth in the first quarter of 2016. was in the vicinity of 3.8 to 4 percent. All the time so it would be a good result – says Monika Kurtek.
“500+ Family” tease sale?
Expert Employers of Poland Lukasz Kozlowski noted that positive on retail sales influenced the Easter holidays and the payment of one-time supplements to pensions. – These factors were not enough to to stop the decline of turnover retail trade – said Kozlowski.
– While continuing for a long time deflation, which includes not only fuel but also many other kinds of goods and products , may affect the reduction of the propensity to make larger purchases by the Poles, there are reasons to believe that the downward trend will not persist for too long. For it is very likely that the launch of withdrawals from the program “Family 500+” tease in subsequent periods, consumer demand, and for the next twelve months will be a positive influence on the growth of retail sales – said the expert of Employers RP.
“the dynamics of retail sales limit price declines”
Analyst Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego Peter Dmitrowski noted that “retail sales as in previous months limit price declines.” – In real terms, its size is significantly higher and stands at 3 percent. Every year. The biggest negative surprise made the category “other” – double-digit decline in constant prices – he stressed.
– Data on sales, despite the low overall dynamics contain a lot of information confirming the very good consumer sentiment. In this regard, one can mention the continuing double-digit positive growth in car sales. Given the improvement in the condition of the labor market and government program 500 plus, we expect that in the coming months will see much better value of retail sales, which will also be reflected in the acceleration of consumption in GDP data – added Dmitrowski.
“Prospects Polish economy are optimistic “
the Economist BZ WBK Piotr Bielski indicates that the CSO data on industrial production are clearly below expectations, because most forecasts fluctuated around 4 percent. He adds that at the moment it is difficult to indicate the cause of the weak growth in production, because the company did not indicate a decline in foreign orders and domestic.
The expert believes that, despite weaker economic data outlook for the Polish economy are optimistic. This is because the euro zone economy is growing at a decent pace, and the exchange rate is competitive and conducive to the presence of Polish companies on foreign markets.
In February, p roduction industries grew by 6 7 percent year on year. Retail sales in February 2016. Increased by 6.2 percent. on an annual basis. In monthly terms, the increase was 1.3 percent.
IAR / PAP, Celebrating
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