UniCredit, the largest foreign investor in the Polish banking industry, on Tuesday night unexpectedly announced that gets rid of 10 percent. Bank Pekao stake for 750 million euros (3.3 billion zł). Sold securities quickly found buyers at a price of approx. 6 percent. lower than the stock market. Is this the beginning of Italians leaving the second largest bank in Poland? For now, it is not a foregone conclusion, because even after the sale of some shares of UniCredit will control 40 percent. ownership of Bank Pekao.
It is not known who bought the Italians 10 percent. package and how many investors divided it among themselves these securities. If buyers found to any of the Polish state-owned companies (eg. PZU, whose president Michael Krupiński repeatedly hinted that he has eye on acquisition of banks), it could mean that begins with the most serious part of the operation Fri. repolonizacja banking sector.
But it seems that the Italians – unless the situation to them that will not force – they will not want to get rid of such a valuable asset, which is Pekao. Polish bank generates one-sixth of the profits operating in 17 countries UniCredit Group. Poland is the fourth most important market for the banking giant – Italy, Germany and Austria.
UniCredit may, however, be forced to further sell-off of shares in Pekao. Although the group last year was 1.7 billion euro net profit, analysts estimate that it may need 5-10 billion euros of additional capital to protect themselves against potential losses in the near future. And these may be the result of misguided foreign investment and the terrible situation in the Italian domestic market, where all the banks are groaning under the weight of bad debts. At the end of last year in the portfolio of UniCredit they were not paid within the time limit loans worth 85 billion euros. The share price of UniCredit, which 10 years ago knocks 40 euro fell below 2 euros.
Italian banks want to help
Trouble UniCredit is just the tip of the iceberg – even worse are the other banks in Italy. In total, the industry is in the portfolios of approx. 360 billion euros of bad loans – nearly 17 percent. all provided! For comparison: in Poland this percentage is 7.3 percent. According to the “Financial Times”, a total of Italian banks missing 38 billion of core capital to cover losses that arise after the inevitable increase in the scale created by the banks reserves for bad loans.
The worst situation is a bank Monte dei Paschi, which already last week he had to turn to the European Central Bank for help. One option may be to sell more than 10 billion euros of bad loans to a special fund, which was created at the beginning of the year on the initiative of the Italian authorities. More than 2.5 billion already went to recapitalize the Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca.
At the beginning of July, the head of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco said he can not rule out the need for financial support for the weakest Italian banks. In his view, intervention may be necessary that the crisis does not spread. Therefore, the Italian government began negotiations with the European Commission on the rescue package for the Italian banks.
It is opposed, however, the new directive, which was implemented by all EU countries, and that has to assign the cost of rescuing the banks in the first place to their shareholders and bondholders . This would mean a partial “expropriation” of bonds tens of thousands of people who bought subordinated bonds for approx. 30 billion.
Italian politicians might prefer so save the banks with public money. But if we could to convince Brussels it wystrzeliliby into space has developed over the past few years, the EU’s concept of separation bankers loss of taxpayers’ money. – The European Union may agree to help Italian banks to bear the burden of depositors – said Bloombergowi Jim Millstein, former head of the US Department of Treasury.
Until recently, the European Commission said a firm “no” financial aid from public funds for Italian banks. – We have established new rules variants recapitalization of banks and we can not change the rules every two years – said on Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, in the last days of her speech can be seen that there is a chance for an agreement. – I am confident that the matter will be resolved – said yesterday Bloombergowi.
The concerns about the banking sector IMF representatives talked with the Italian government. – If the European stress tests show that the Italian banking system is not secure, Italy may be a problem with the recapitalization of banks with public funds – said Rishi Goyal, a representative of the IMF during the meeting. Meanwhile, the IMF lowered its forecast for economic growth in Italy to “less than 1 per cent. In 2016. And approx. 1 per cent. In 2017.”.
will help repolonizować?
If there was public support, including UniCredit, politicians would ask the banks to sell their foreign assets. So did the Irish government to AIB, former owner of BZ WBK, which was sent to the Spanish Santander.
If UniCredit had to enlist the help of the government, repaying it later with money obtained from forced by politicians sale of shares of Pekao, it would open up repolonizacji way to the Polish industry. Or rather re-nationalization, because at this scale transactions – 10-12 billion zł – potential buyers could be among PZU group (already has 25 percent. Alior Bank). State capital blades also their teeth to take Raiffeisen.
Today, the share of national – mainly state – capital in the Polish banking is roughly 35 percent.
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