Fitch maintained the Polish long-term rating of A minus and A, respectively, for liabilities in foreign currencies and in national currency , maintained a stable outlook – Fitch announced on Friday evening in a statement.
According to Fitch’s rating reflects, among others, solid macroeconomic foundations of the Polish economy. The Agency notes at the same time attention to the risks associated with the possible currency conversion loans frankowych: “The solution, which would be too costly for the banks would expose financial stability.”
The agency expects that the deficit in 2016. At 2.8 percent . And 3 per cent of GDP. Of GDP in 2017. And that there will be a gradual fiscal tightening and lower the deficit to 2.9 percent. in 2018. In the opinion of Fitch in the current year economic growth will reach 3.2 per cent., and the next 3.3 per cent., which is the merit of private consumption and increased government spending pro-family. As a risk to this forecast indicated external demand, especially after the referendum dot. Brexitu. Fitch drew attention because that 6 percent. Polish exports generates exchanges with the United Kingdom.
According to the agency since October last year, when in our country there have been political changes, decreased the predictability of the Polish economic policy, which – as indicated – increases the risk of deterioration in the economic outlook and fiscal Fitch.
Fitch pointed out that the change in the Constitutional Court increased the distance between the Polish and the European Commission. “These changes can have an impact on the attractiveness of Polish as a place to do business. However, (…) the most controversial changes announced by PiS election campaign managed to avoid” – written.
In the commentary indicated that – despite the high GDP growth – the first eight months of the PiS government implemented unconventional measures, including tax on banks while loosening fiscal. It was noted that the discussed are “activities that could significantly affect the financial stability and fiscal policies, including the conversion of mortgages.”
“The banking sector is well capitalized, liquid and profitable,” – added. According to the agency the main risk for the sector is a potential plan of conversion loans frankowych.
“The government has stressed that any solution should preserve financial stability. Any conditions for conversion remain highly uncertain. The law should go to Parliament in the summer. A solution that it would be too costly for the banks would expose financial stability “- we read.
In mid-January the rating agency Standard & amp; Poor’s surprised the market and the long-term rating downgraded Polish debt in foreign currency to the level of “BBB plus” from “A minus” noting that the rating outlook is negative. Long- and short-term rating in local currency was lowered to A- / A-2 from A / A-1, a short-term credit rating in foreign currency was confirmed at A-2 with a negative outlook.
decision of S & amp; P its assessment released in January, Fitch, while maintaining the current rating Polish. In March of this year. Japanese agency Japan Credit Rating maintained its assessment of the creditworthiness of Polish current level A for foreign currency and A + for the national currency, indicating that the rating outlook remains stable.
In mid-May its decision issued the rating Moody’s. In line with the expectations of economists, the agency confirmed the previous assessment of Polish at A2 / P-1 for long and short-term liabilities in national and foreign currency. The outlook, however, was changed from stable to negative.
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