The rating agency Fitch confirmed on Friday the existing credit rating (rating), Polish. The stable outlook also has not changed – the ministry indicated. On Monday at noon. 11 briefing announced the head of the Ministry of Finance Paul Szałamacha on. Fitch decision.
The finance ministry added that Fitch in a press release justifying the decision, emphasized the strong fundamentals of the Polish economy, which is reflected in strong GDP growth. Agency predicts GDP growth of 3.2-3.3 percent. in the years 2016-2018, which will be supported mainly by private consumption. Positive trends on the labor market and increased financial support for families (500+ Family Program) will be the main drivers of growth in consumption.
“In the opinion of the Minister of Finance forecasts the agency, against a market consensus for this period at 3.3 -3.5 per cent., can be regarded as rather conservative. According to the Ministry of Finance will be achieved higher economic growth, although we share the opinion of the agency that the main growth driver remains domestic demand, in particular household consumption, which is also beneficial for the sector revenue general government “- pointed to the finance Ministry.
added that Fitch analysts noted that the increased state budget expenditure will be financed by higher tax revenues resulting from improving economic conditions and better collection of VAT. Agency provides for the gradual reduction of the budget deficit from 2018 year. At the same time it points out that the Polish government has pledged to keep the public finance deficit at no more than 3 percent. GDP, which is confirmed in the projections deficit prepared by Fitch.
“In the opinion of the Ministry of Finance analysts agencies recognize the positive effects that bring carried out since the beginning of the term of the present government’s work on the seal of the tax system” – is written in the message MF.
MF pointed out that according to a press Fitch Polish banking sector is well capitalized, liquid and profitable. “Negatively on the results of the sector may influence the possible conversion of mortgage loans in CHF. At the same time the agency takes note of the Government’s position regarding ensure the stability of the financial sector. Fitch noted that the change of the composition of the Monetary Policy Council did not alter parameters of monetary policy regime. The external position of Polish is improved by increasing the competitiveness of the economy and price declines in the commodity markets. Agency expects a decline in net foreign debt Polish “- described in the Communication Ministry.
added that Fitch indicates the possibility of a positive rating change Polish for continued high pace GDP growth and income convergence with higher assessed countries, and a further reduction in foreign debt due to the improvement of the current account balance and capital inflows. “Among the factors that could have a negative impact on the rating agency points exceeding 3 per cent. Of GDP deficit threshold, conversion of loans in CHF in a way that could undermine the stability of the banking sector and the potential negative impact on the economy Brexitu” – noted.
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