credit rating of our country remains unchanged at “A minus” (7 result in a 22-point scale). They did not meet the concerns of some experts, who warned before the reduction of the negative perspective. Golden moments after 22. began to strengthen.
The agency has made a spoonful of tar, indicating that although the economy is thriving, but “reduced predictability in economic policy , which appeared October 2015 increased the risk of deterioration projections economic and fiscal “. As indicated by Fitch, it is all about conversion of foreign currency loans. In contrast, a negative impact on the budget program 500+ offset the increased budget revenues due to new taxes (banking, and since autumn shopping).
None of seven economists polled by money.pl not bet credit rating declines, but many warned of a possible change of perspective on the negative (announcement imminent reduction). Leaving the assessment of the credibility of Polish you can in this context be considered as some surprise, especially that in May, Moody’s lowered our perspective, and in January Standard & amp; Poor’s unexpectedly cut our rating, causing huge financial turmoil.
The fact that Fitch could leave its assessment unchanged, said in an interview with money.pl Piotr Bujak, chief economist at PKO BP, indicating that the Polish economy is in good condition, and some indicators in recent times even improved.
– Since the last assessment of the creditworthiness of Polish state
improved external balance. Poland maintains an open line of credit from the IMF,
forecasts improved current account balance balance of payments and
the share of foreign investors among the holders of Polish
Treasury securities – he explained.
Breathe a sigh of relief, among others, may borrowers who pay their installments in foreign currencies. The decision to cut the perspective, and the more the rating could trigger rapid weakening of the zloty.
– In this situation, the weakening of the zloty against the euro to 4.50 would be the minimum duration of the sentence – warned before the announcement of the decision Fitch Damian Rosinski, an analyst at brokerage AFS. In the case of the Swiss franc could even see levels similar to those of January 2015.
He was relieved sigh can also range from finance minister Paul Szałamacha at the helm. At the official comment from the ministry but we have to wait until Monday. At 11.00 is scheduled briefing on this.
The decision to maintain the rating is favorable for Polish not only in terms of image, but also financial. We avoid the negative consequences of loss of confidence of foreign investors in the form of a sharp outflow of capital. With this we have experienced in the first three months of this year, after it drastically cut the rating of our agency Standard & amp; Poor’s. On the Polish market securities it evaporated when 25.3 billion zł. This is the highest outflow of funds over the past 20 years – said on Thursday the Polish National Bank. More on this subject we wrote HERE.
We should depend on positive evaluation on the part of foreign investors, because it largely depend on them the cost of borrowing money by the government. And these very needs in connection with the huge expenses associated with financing in subsequent years of the program 500+, lowering the retirement age or assistance frankowiczom. Sam minister Mateusz Morawiecki mentioned in recent days that the 500 zł for a child is on credit, and only this year to promote fertility zadłużyliśmy by an additional 20 billion zł.
Thanks maintaining the rating, at least in the statistics, our country in terms of capital adequacy is seen higher than Spain, Italy or Slovenia. Degradation uplasowałaby but we also between countries such as Iceland, Mexico, Peru and Thailand.
| the countries with the same rating as the credibility of Poland (by various agencies) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Fitch (A -) | Standard & amp; Poor’s (BBB +) | Moody’s (A2) |
| Latvia | Spain | Botswana |
| Lithuania | Thailand | Slovakia |
| Malaysia | Aruba | Bermuda |
| | Iceland | |
| Malta | | |
| | Mexico | |
| | Peru | |
| source: tradingeconomics .com | ||
the assessment is positive, but the government has great responsibility approaches for the implementation of election promises, and above all to deal with the budget for next year. From this will depend on further upgrades rating by Fitch.
– I think that the risk of rating change seriously will be only in September and October – said before the announcement of the decision of Fitch analyst and economist Marek Zuber. – Mainly because then we already knew the budget bill, and we will clearly know where and what will be the money. At the moment it is difficult to say that since the last assessment of political and economic situation has changed.
| Why credit rating agencies are shaking the markets? |
No comments:
Post a Comment