According to Fitch’s rating reflects, among others, solid macroeconomic foundations of the Polish economy. The Agency notes at the same time attention to the risks associated with the possible currency conversion loans frankowych: “The solution, which would be too costly for the banks would expose financial stability.”
The agency expects that the deficit in 2016. At 2.8 percent. And 3 per cent of GDP. Of GDP in 2017. And that there will be a gradual fiscal tightening and lower the deficit to 2.9 percent. in 2018. In the opinion of Fitch in the current year economic growth will reach 3.2 per cent., and the next 3.3 per cent., which is the merit of private consumption and increased government spending pro-family. As a risk to this forecast indicated external demand, especially after the referendum dot. Brexitu. Fitch drew attention because that 6 percent. Polish exports generates exchanges with the United Kingdom.
According to the agency since October last year, when in our country there have been political changes, decreased the predictability of the Polish economic policy, which – as indicated – increases the risk of worsening economic forecasts and fiscal Fitch.
Fitch pointed out that the change in the Constitutional Court increased the distance between the Polish and the European Commission. “These changes can have an impact on the attractiveness of Polish as a place to do business. However, (…) the most controversial changes announced by PiS election campaign managed to avoid” – written.
In the commentary indicated that – despite the high GDP growth – the first eight months of the PiS government implemented unconventional measures, including tax on banks while loosening fiscal. It was noted that the discussed are “activities that could significantly affect the financial stability and fiscal policies, including the conversion of mortgages.”
“The banking sector is well capitalized, liquid and profitable,” – added. According to the agency the main risk for the sector is a potential plan of conversion loans frankowych.
“The government has stressed that any solution should preserve financial stability. Any conditions for conversion remain highly uncertain. The law should go to Parliament in the summer. A solution that would be too costly for the banks would expose financial stability” – we say.
In mid-January the rating agency Standard & amp; Poor’s surprised the market and the long-term rating downgraded Polish debt in foreign currency to the level of “BBB plus” from “A minus” noting that the rating outlook is negative. Long- and short-term rating in local currency was lowered to A- / A-2 from A / A-1, a short-term credit rating in foreign currency was confirmed at A-2 with a negative outlook.
decision of S & amp; P its assessment released in January, Fitch, while maintaining the current rating Polish. In March of this year. Japanese agency Japan Credit Rating maintained its assessment of the creditworthiness of Polish current level A for foreign currency and A + for the national currency, indicating that the rating outlook remains stable.
In mid-May its decision issued the rating Moody’s. In line with the expectations of economists, the agency confirmed the previous assessment of Polish at A2 / P-1 for long and short-term liabilities in national and foreign currency. The outlook, however, was changed from stable to negative.
MF: Fitch confirmed the existing creditworthiness Polish
According to the finance minister forecasts Fitch dot. Polish GDP growth at 3.2-3.3 percent. in the years 2016-2018, against a market consensus for this period at the level of 3.3-3.5 per cent., can be considered rather conservative – MF reported on Friday night in the message.
On Monday at hours. 11 briefing announced the head of the Ministry of Finance Paul Szałamacha on. Fitch decision.
The finance ministry added that Fitch in a press release justifying the decision, emphasized the strong fundamentals of the Polish economy, which is reflected in strong GDP growth. Agency predicts GDP growth of 3.2-3.3 percent. in the years 2016-2018, which will be supported mainly by private consumption. Positive trends on the labor market and increased financial support for families (500+ Family Program) will be the main drivers of growth in consumption.
“In the opinion of the Minister of Finance forecasts the agency, against a market consensus for this period at the level of 3.3-3.5 per cent., Can be regarded as rather conservative. According to the Ministry of Finance will be achieved higher economic growth rate, however, we share the opinion of the agency that the main growth driver remains domestic demand, in particular household consumption, which is also beneficial for the revenue of the general government “- pointed to the finance Ministry.
added that analysts Fitch noted that increased the state budget expenditure will be financed by higher tax revenues resulting from improving economic conditions and better collection of VAT. Agency provides for the gradual reduction of the budget deficit from 2018 year. At the same time it points out that the Polish government has pledged to keep the public finance deficit at no more than 3 percent. GDP, which is confirmed in the deficit projections prepared by Fitch.
“In the opinion of the Ministry of Finance analysts agencies recognize the positive effects that bring carried out since the beginning of the term of the present government’s work on the seal of the tax system” – is written in the message MF.
MF pointed out that according to Fitch currently the Polish banking sector is well capitalized, liquid and profitable. “Negatively on the results of the sector may influence the possible conversion of mortgage loans in CHF. At the same time the agency takes note of the Government’s position regarding ensure the stability of the financial sector. Fitch noted that the change of the composition of the Monetary Policy Council did not alter parameters of monetary policy regime. The external position of Polish is improved by increasing the competitiveness of the economy and price declines in the commodity markets. Agency expects a decline in net foreign debt Polish “- described in the Communication Ministry.
added that Fitch indicates the possibility of a positive rating change Polish for continued high pace GDP growth and income convergence with higher assessed countries, and a further reduction in foreign debt due to the improvement of the current account balance and capital inflows. “Among the factors that could have a negative impact on the rating agency points exceeding 3 per cent. Of GDP deficit threshold, conversion of loans in CHF in a way that could undermine the stability of the banking sector and the potential negative impact Brexitu on the economy,” – noted.
Antczak: Fitch saw a stabilization of the economic and political Polish
– Fitch, leaving unchanged the rating Polish, drew attention to the good indicators of the Polish economy, political stability and greater security guarantees for our country after the NATO summit – says Rafal Antczak Deloitte.
Rafal Antczak notes that the agency its decision agreed with those who say: “Our cabin with the country.” – The world happen disturbing things, and Poland is an area of stability – draws attention.
– The economy is stable at the level of growth of 3-4 per cent., The components of this growth are strong, because it increases consumption, export, in next year probably will increase investment growth, all this is perceived – says Antczak. – So black predictions that the economy was about to collapse because of political reasons, which formulated at the beginning of the year, the S & amp; P, do not work – he added.
According to the analyst, it is also important that we have a Polish stabilization political, there is no pre-election period, as in France or Germany, ruled by a stable majority. – These are the factors that are also stabilizing the economy – he said.
In his view, important it is the fact that Poland is a very safe country, especially after the last NATO summit. – It will also have an economic dimension in the long run, because the stationing of US troops in Poland will have an impact on investment decisions – he comments. – Fitch took all this into account – he said.
notes that Fitch is more optimistic than in May was Moody’s, and both ratings differ from the January opinion S & amp; P “which built a scenario extremely negative “. – I wonder what would happen if the expectations of S & amp; P will not work until the end of the year, and will appeal this rating? – Asks Antczak.
Mech Now agencies are waiting for the budget and government decisions autumn
– Agents are waiting for the budget and autumn government decisions – believes economist, former deputy finance minister Cezary Mech. According to him, now more important for assessments Polish market are the events in Turkey than the rating agency Fitch.
According to the Mecha decision Fitch, which on Friday maintained its rating of Polish and stable outlook is good news, but everyone is waiting for the next assessment Moody’s, which is to be announced in the autumn. – Yes, I predicted that Moody’s only change attitudes and use slip-up S & amp; P, so now I’m afraid that everything is dependent on the assessment of Moody’s. In fact, the rating agencies are waiting for what will be the budget of Polish for the next year and whether these actions, which are in some way disturbing, and which are announced or are they materialize or prove that, however, in the course of the work of government and work however, the budget will be subdued – said Moss.
According to him on Monday you can expect a positive market reaction, especially since it was a small risk that Fitch will lower the rating outlook. – Remember that now a greater impact on the assessment of the market in Poland is what is happening in Turkey than the information on the rating of (…). The increase in risk in connection with what is happening in Turkey will have an impact on all the countries of emerging markets – said Moss.
He added that in such a situation, investors appreciate so. safe havens. – The most important is that the fall agencies will look at the approach to frankowiczów, retirement age, changes in the second pension pillar and the approach of tax-free amount. Depending on the decisions to be taken by the Polish government, will be the decision of Moody’s, which may also result in changes in decision Fitch – said former Deputy Minister of Finance.
Janecki Decision Fitch is positive news for Polish
– Decision Fitch is a positive message especially for the Polish financial market – told PAP chief economist at Societe Generale Jaroslaw Janecki. According to him, Fitch analysts showed caution.
– It’s a positive message especially for the Polish financial market, both for bonds and for the Polish currency. After January’s warning from Fitch were the reasons for doing so, to believe that there will be, but at least change the perspective of the Polish market, but this did not happen – said Janecki.
According to him you can see, the Fitch analysts approach very carefully to a situation that can be observed in the Polish economy and for government action. – I think that certainly from the perspective of one agency can see extreme caution – the economist said.
No comments:
Post a Comment