The Leading Climate Indicator (WWK), informing in advance about future trends in the economy in February 2016. Did not change its value in relation to January br.- reported on Friday Bureau of Investment and Economic Cycles.
In February JCC remained at the level of 161.2 points. “Thus, the increase from the previous month remained so far one-off event. The biggest threat to the maintenance of economic growth is the lack of significant positive changes on the orders flowing to businesses, low labor productivity and significantly weaker than in the world quotation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange” – he announced to run Communication.
According to the institute in the midst of the eight components of the indicator in February. two have improved compared to the prior month, two remained stable and four worsened. Changes in the rate of inflow of new orders in recent months are very small.
It was noted that for a long time the proportion of representatives of businesses indicating an increase in the backlog is almost the same as the percentage of companies indicating their decline.
“It is alarming shrinking backlog realized for export. This phenomenon is observed since the spring of last year. Although GUS data and NBP on the results of foreign trade for the time being not confirm this decline but the information about orders significantly ahead of the reporting about. Export performance and imports “- informed.
According to BIEC stimulate the inflow of new orders from overseas markets may, however, affect the weakening of the zloty, while the formation of the portfolio of domestic orders – an increase in domestic demand as a result of the implementation of April. 500 + program.
According to research deteriorated somewhat assessment of managers on the financial situation in which they manage companies. “These data recently are subject to increased volatility, but the general trend observed almost two years indicates a deterioration in financial companies,” – written in the commentary.
deteriorated also assess the overall economic situation. According to analysts, the effect is probably not only the lack of a clear improvement in the inflow of new orders, but also the uncertainty associated with changes in the tax system introduced by the government or zapowiadanymi.
The analysis shows that the least optimistic is the situation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. WIG over the last year has lost about 16 per cent., And in relation to his last local peak in May 2015 – nearly 23 percent.
It was noted that the stocks in the warehouses of manufacturers remained at the level of last month, there has also changed compared to the previous month labor productivity in the business sector.
“It is worth noting that the sharp increase in labor productivity was recorded in the last two months of last year. This resulted only clearly better data on industrial production sold. And he was the consequence of nearly 180 percent increase in the value of production in the other transport equipment” – added.
BIEC suspect that at the end of last year, one of the manufacturers of this equipment realized and booked proceeds from the sale. Similar situations where the proceeds of one transaction of significant value, conquering the production data, there were many times, most recently at the end of 2013.
BIEC pointed out that the increase in the work of the JCC in February of two components: the money supply and a slight increase in consumer debt from loans. It was noted a slight increase in household deposits, which probably has to do with increasing wages and improving labor market conditions.
“A slight increase in household debt from loans resulted exclusively from Polish zloty depreciation, which increased the zloty value of loans taken out in foreign currencies. Generally, however, consumers are reluctant to make purchases financing bank loan “- explained. (PAP)
mmu / par /
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