In January, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages were higher than those of the beginning of last year by 0.1 per cent., While the index of the prices of all goods and services fell by 0.7 percent. year on year, which is stronger than in December. But do not expect a clear rebound in food prices, which worldwide is the cheapest for almost seven years. It was not until the fourth quarter will bring higher prices for milk and meat.
– Looking at global trends in the food market as well as domestic factors, we expect that inflation in food prices in the first half. year will be shaped slightly above zero – Olipra says James, economist at the bank Crédit Agricole. – In the fourth quarter will see a significant increase in the growth, to approx. 1.5 percent. at the end of the year. However, food prices remain low.
The main factor affecting the acceleration of inflation will be according to the economist revival of the milk market, which raises its prices and increase in prices of poultry meat and beef. To a lesser extent, pork journey. But all this only in the last quarter of the year. In addition to the dynamics will be called. low base, that is, that the current prices will be compared with their low level of last year. During the twelve months of 2015 years, food prices fell by 1.8 per cent., The rate of general – about half as much.
Prices may pull down this year, fruits and vegetables. A year ago, they were expensive due to the drought.
– In the summer months, depending on how they have shaped the harvest of fruits and vegetables, we expect a decline in prices in the year due to the high base effect from 2015 years – predicts Olipra. – Last year we had to deal with the drought on agricultural considerably across the country, which led to significant price increases, particularly brassica vegetables and root crops. Assuming that this year’s harvest will shape up at the average level for the previous year, which is higher than 2015, it will be a factor conducive to a decline in their prices on an annualized basis, that lower inflation of food in Poland.
The growth prices in Poland is not conducive to the global situation. As reported by the FAO (United Nations. Food and Agriculture), calculated its index of food prices in January was the lowest level in nearly seven years, since April 2009. Become cheaper all the components of the index, that is, meat, dairy products, cereals, vegetable oil and even sugar, which previously clearly drożał.
– Food prices are strongly correlated with oil prices – explains the phenomenon economist Crédit Agricole. – This is due to three factors: first, a significant part of the cost of agricultural production account for just oil prices, fuel prices. The second factor is the extensive use of agricultural products in the production of biofuels. Finally, the third instruments Commodity Index Swap, which contain a variety of prices of raw materials of agricultural, metal and energy. Such trade is held by institutional investors and when the falling price of one of the raw materials, automatically, to balance the structure of the index sold off is another raw material, which causes a drop in its price.
Crude oil is getting cheaper almost continuously since mid-2014 years. Its price at the time dropped from about $ 100 per barrel to $ 30.
According to forecasts, the only product of the basic groups, which can rise in price this year, is sugar. Estimates analytical center Platts Kingsman, the deficit on the global market is expected to reach 7 million tons in the 2016/2017 season. This increases the likelihood of higher prices.
– The balance on the sugar market is disturbed – the demand will exceed supply. It contributes to the phenomenon of El Ni? O, which is conducive to reduced sugar cane harvest and sugar production in Brazil, the biggest producer of sugar cane. Reduced rainfall in India and Thailand will also affect the lower production – provides Olipra.
No comments:
Post a Comment