In the PRL, according to the official propaganda, the plans were systematically executed in advance, at least one year. But eg. In the fourth five-year plan (for the years 1971 to 1975) it exceeds 2 years. Plan Morawiecki pierced, however, the first five-year plan Gierek. The principal objectives of the plan failed to realize before his announcement, and even 20 years earlier.
The first objective of the plan is that in 2020 industrial production grew more strongly than GDP. Except that in the last twenty years, so it was 15 times, and 18 times the processing industry.
As a result, unless the GDP increased in the years 1996-2015 by 105 per cent., Whereas industrial production by 156 percent ., and production in the processing industry by 260 percent. Poland, which is on the verge of transformation was an agricultural country (in agriculture worked 1/3 of Poles), underwent industrialization. Industry is responsible for 25 percent. GDP in the country to 19 percent. on average in the EU.
Another objective of the plan is the faster growth of loans to enterprises than for households in 2020.
The goal has been to realize the two years prior to the announcement of the plan. Do not threaten him so the bank tax, which discourages lending in general, but in particular businesses. Time after not withdraw.
Another goal is to increase the share of investment in GDP from the current 20 percent. to over 25 percent. 2020 . Unfortunately, this objective is inconsistent with the slogan trillion investment in the Polish economy. It is already so large in size that according to forecasts of the International Monetary Fund and without raising the rate of investment will amount to one in the years 2016-2020 two trillion 262 billion zł. Trillion will be invested in it by mid-2018, two and a half years of the scheme.
Another goal for 2020 is faster growth in exports than GDP. But in the past 20 years, so it was 17 times. In total, in the years 1996-2015 exports increased by 324 per cent., Or more than three times more than the GDP. In a time in which even the Germans were losing market share to China, the Polish participation in world exports doubled.
The final objective of the plan is to raise per capita income to 79 percent. EU average in 2020. If you believe the forecasts of the IMF in October last year, and so the plan and not take into account the risk of a fiscal crisis, which is enhanced by the implementation of election promises, he had to rise to 77 percent. This increase was made without any increase in the savings rate. As a result, the level of consumption per capita was supposed to be about 5 percent. higher than the result of the plan.
According to the plan, households in 2020 will buy less, about 87 billion zł, than they might if the plan was not implemented (the reality may be much worse because of the risk of crisis fiscal, which threatens the implementation of election promises.)
If the creators of the plan are aware of this restriction of consumption, and it is not the consequence of not review the coherence of individual numbers in the plan, it shows drew from history, at least this lesson that the investments be decided by politicians, they have low productivity. But in that case why they want to treat the public that a repeat of history and still call it the growth of high quality?
Ways of implementation of the plan do not judge, because what if the basic objectives of the plan have already been achieved.
Commentary comes from the blog Civic Development. Andrew Rzońca is an economist, a member of the Monetary Policy Council in the 2010-2016 term. He currently works at the Warsaw School of Economics.
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