Currencies: Already six years have passed since the beginning of the crisis – Virtual Poland

Currencies: Already six years have passed since the beginning of the crisis – Virtual Poland

Sweden is another country where we have a deadlock caused by a problem with the establishment of the government after the elections. Today we are celebrating the sixth anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers. Today we will see important data on inflation in Poland – it is from them will depend on the October MPC decision.
 

In Sweden the weekend elections were held. As is often the case in recent times, they have brought a serious impasse in creating the coalition. The reason is the result of a dozen or so anti-immigrant party. This is a group widely boycotted by representatives of other formations. The problem is that these ten percent when the previous coalition almost tied with the opposition turns out to be necessary to form a government in most configurations. What is the impact on the currency market? Directly on the zloty small but Sweden is likely to turn back from the path of rationalization of the budget and reducing taxes. What will translate into a weakening of the Swedish krona. Just last week, it has weakened against the euro by more than 1%.

Today we know the balance of payments and inflation in Poland. Interestingly, analysts expect a deepening deflation to 0.4%. If that happens, gold should weaken against the major currencies. That would increase the chances of the October cut interest rates in Poland. And the MPC decision will weaken the zloty against other currencies.
 

Exactly six years ago, September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers collapsed. This event is regarded as the turning point of the current crisis. That it started a panic in the markets and the desperate moves of governments that tried to prevent the collapse of other banks. As a result, there has been a massive destabilization of the financial sector and the volatility of exchange rates was huge. A good example was a nightmare borrowers, that is a reflection of the CHF from less than 2 to 3 zł zł and reflection of the euro with a little over 3 zł for over 4,50 zł. Still ongoing discussion about the effectiveness of certain methods of dealing with the crisis and how to fight with him so as not to cause more losses than gains.
 

In Ukraine still hot. Both sides continued despite the ceasefire a burden of responsibility for its failure. OSCE observers controlling the ceasefire in Donetsk were shot by unknown assailants. In this city from time to time are repeated assaults on the airport. As long as Russian soldiers will stay in Ukraine and take part in the conflict, the situation will raise the temperature of the markets and consequently weaken the zloty.
 

EUR / PLN
 

Chart average exchange rate of EUR / PLN for the period from 06.15.2014 to 15.09.2014
 

EUR / PLN inside the medium-term uptrend. In the case of upward movement and resistance is the upper limit of the short-term downtrend at 4.2000. The support level is 4.1700, which is last local minimum.
 

CHF / PLN
 

Chart average exchange rate CHF / PLN for the period from 06.15.2014 to 15.09.2014
 

From June CHF exchange rate underwent a lateral trend. The nearest resistance is 3.4800 which is the lower limit lowered growth formation. In the case of downward movement of the nearest support is the lower limit of the upward trend at 3.4650, and after the puncture level 3.3950, which is the last valid local minimum.
 

USD / PLN
 

Chart average exchange rate USD / PLN for the period from 06.15.2014 to 15.09.2014
 

USD / PLN created a trend and raises the levels. The nearest resistance level is 3.2700 which is an extension of a new uptrend. For the downward movement of support is 3.1900, which is the lower limit of that formation.
 

GBP / PLN
 

Chart average exchange rate GBP / PLN for the period from 06.15.2014 to 15.09.2014
 

Exchange GBP / PLN moves in an upward trend. To further upward movement, the upper limit of the resistance is 5.3500 channel. In the case of downward movement of the nearest support is 5.2200, which is the lower limit for the formation of growth.
 

Maciej Przygórzewski
 principal analyst at Internetowykantor.pl and Walutomat
 Currency One SA