In the labor market improvement. And these data are consistent with the estimates of the labor ministry.
The data is very good – because you can see that the labor market reacts to economic recovery – explains Monika Jacket economist Postbank. – It was impacted seasonal work in construction and horticulture, on the other hand, led by labor offices activation of the unemployed. It is very possible that the next months to the end of October, the unemployment rate will remain at the lowest level since 2010, but then starts to grow and the year will end more than 12 percent. – Provides an economist.
In August of work was million eight hundred fifty three thousand people. It’s about more than 20,000 unemployed less than in July – that is, unemployment is falling and this positive trend has continued since the beginning of the year.
Vice President of the CSO Grazyna Marciniak stresses that in August, the unemployment rate was the lowest since November 2010. She added that a further decline in the number of unemployed is still possible.
– This upbeat data – so comments about the Central Statistical Office on retail sales and unemployment economist Victor Paten from the School of Business in Nowy Sacz. This bodes well for the future expert believes. As pointed it shows a recovery in the economy and employers willing to hire new employees.
Economist predicts that perhaps this trend to continue in the coming months. Expert bit cautious approaches while the CSO data on retail sales. – This growth rate is slightly less than in previous months, probably another barrier to its growth is appearing deflation. Consumers refrain from major purchases – Victor adds Paten.
Not all economists are optimistic
The economy has shortness of breath, but you can not talk about the recession, so today data from the Central Statistical Office evaluates the chief economist Millenium, Grzegorz Maliszewski.
According to an expert on unemployment are positive. Number of unemployed people has been falling for several months. The unemployment rate in August is 1.3 percentage point lower than a year earlier. Also in September, according to an expert, may improve the labor market. Consecutive months, according to the economist, but will pass under the sign of the rise in unemployment due to seasonal factors. At the end of this year, according to Grzegorz Maliszewski, this ratio might be about 12.3 percent.
This view is other economists. – In recent years, unemployment fell in August compared with July usually about 0.1 percentage points. However, the decline in unemployment is not really correlated with an increase in the number of jobs. Therefore, in practice, in Poland it is not easy to find a job. Thus, poor performance in the area of retail sales – says the director of the Office of the Polish Association of Loan Funds (PZFP) Peter Rogowiecki. – The annual increase in sales in the clothing and footwear, as well as food prices due to the fall in these categories. The monthly increase in sales in the first category is related to the seasonal sales. Sales results are weak in light of the increase in the purchasing power of wages, but understandable in the face of a relatively difficult situation on the labor market – the economist added.
Retail grows
Sale Retail in August rose 1.7 percent. compared with the same period of 2013, and month to month fell by 1.1 percent. – Central Statistical Office said on Tuesday. The biggest drop in sales of motor vehicles concerned.
Retail Sales rose in real terms by 2.8 per cent. year to year. Economists estimated that retail sales in August yoy increase of 1.6 per cent., And mom fell by 0.9 percent.
Cars down, up cosmetics
The largest decreases were recorded in the sales department motor vehicles – 5.5 percent. year on year and 15.1 per cent. relative to July. In annual terms in August by more than 4 percent. also decreased fuel sales. In contrast, the most compared to August 2013. Increased sale of drugs and cosmetics – by 9.4 percent. clothing and footwear – by 19 percent. Food, drinks and tobacco increased by 2.3 per cent., And other sales in non-specialized stores – about 3.6 percent.
Compared to July increased the most sales of furniture and home appliances – by 5.9 percent. as well as clothing and footwear – about 4 percent. The biggest drop – next to motor vehicles – was recorded in section medicines and cosmetics – about 4.4 percent.
– Data on sales primarily indicate a strong decline in demand for cars and fuel, in other terms specified by the CSO dynamics sales are robust. However, given the increasingly weaker economic data from the real economy, the question becomes further improvement in the labor market, which in turn negatively affects consumer confidence – says economist of Bank Pekao Wojciech Matysiak.
In July, decreasing unemployment, rising retail sales
Labour Minister: Very good year, unemployment fell by 2 percentage points
TVN 24 Business and World / x-news
Justin knuckle, IAR / PAP, abo
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