Quotations Brent crude, which is the benchmark for two-thirds of the worldwide turnover of oil, a few years ago were significantly lower than the prices of crude oil WTI (West Texas Intermediate). In mid-June of this year the price of Brent crude oil reached a record this year, that is $ 114. From this point quotations are falling and investors now have to pay about $ 100 per barrel. In turn, WTI Crude costs approx. $ 93 per barrel.
In the opinion of DNB Bank of Poland, by the end of the WTI oil price stabilizes at approx. $ 90 per barrel, and next year will range between 90 and $ 95. The main factor that affects the fall in oil prices, a second shale revolution in the United States.
– The first revolution is a revolution of gas łupkowego- says the agency Newseria Business Artur Tomaszewski, CEO of DNB Bank of Poland. Now we have to deal with shale oil revolution. United States became the world’s largest oil producer, surpassing even Saudi Arabia. Production continues to grow, hence the pressure for further price reduction.
The second major factor in the price of oil is the ongoing conflicts in various parts of the world, including Ukraine, Libya and Syria. In addition to the United States and Saudi Arabia, Russia is still the third largest producer of oil. A similar system of forces is formed in the gas market. It may, however, soon changed.
– There is a very strong lobby of gas producers. According to my knowledge, the United States finally agreed to export LNG. In 2-3 years the United States will begin to export gas to Europe also – adds CEO of DNB Bank Poland SA.
This will affect the reduction in gas prices in Europe, which in turn will have a positive effect on the whole economy and industry on Old Continent.
– The decline in commodity prices, including oil and gas, will have a positive impact on the growth of Polish GDP. Such a mechanism can be clearly seen in the United States. One of the key elements that affect the economic recovery in the USA are just falling oil and gas prices – highlights Tomaszewski.
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