Industry slows down. GDP growth at risk? – EGospodarka

Industry slows down. GDP growth at risk? – EGospodarka

According to preliminary data, industrial production in August was 1.9 percent. lower than the previous year and by 8.5 per cent. lower compared to July – the Central Statistical Office. The decrease in production occurred in 19 out of 34 considered by the CSO sectors of the economy. Brakes also winning streak in construction. Data refer to companies employing at least 10 employees.

After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors of production results proved to be a bit better, because the relationship of annual industrial production sold increased by 0.7 percent, and during the month fell by 1.2 per cent .

The relation of annual production declined in 19 out of 34 classified by the CSO industries. The largest decreases were recorded Moto, as in the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers yoy decline in production was up by 18.6 percent, production of beverages declined by 11.6 per cent., Electricity, gas, steam and hot water by 7.2 percent. Sales in the mining of coal and lignite decreased by 6.6 percent. Also recorded declines in the food sector, where the decline in production in the relationship amounted to 4.7 percent.

As compared to August 2013 grew manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (by 15.4 per cent.), Furniture (growth 11.2 percent), machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, metal products and paper and paper products.

– Forecasts concerning the situation in the industry materialized. After better than expected in July, when industrial production sold increased by 2.3 percent. August data are very weak. Not only because the rate of change in the industry is negative, but also because only 19 out of 34 industries reported growth, and as many as 15 drop – says Dr. Margaret Starczewska-Krzysztoszek, chief economist of the Confederation Leviathan. – You can not assume that the poor performance of the export industries are not the result of permanent weakening of demand in external markets, especially Europe and the August holidays in companies main business partners of Polish companies. Confirm the results of the industry in September – adds economist.

worsens the condition of the building. Construction and assembly output in August was 3.6 percent lower than a year earlier and 5.4 percent lower compared to July. After adjusting for calendar production in “building sector” was about 1 percent. higher than in August last year and 1.8 percent lower than a month earlier, in July 2014.

– If it turns out that the changes in the industry do not have a holiday character, and are more stable trend GDP growth in the second mid-2014. would be significantly lower than in the first half. Industry is more than 20 percent. weakness of our GDP and its growth slows down the growth of the entire economy. The more that construction output is also not in good condition. And this is another 7 percent. Polish GDP – says economist Leviathan.