– Initial development showed that GDP growth due account of illegal activities in the national accounts does not exceed 1 percent. – Says Witold Marek Wozniak, director of the Information Department of the CSO.
Rescaling is a specific amount, it means that the illegal activities of the Vistula River brings on average each year approx. 16 billion zł. Because the estimated gross domestic product for this year is more than 1.69 billion zł.
The fact that the illegal economy is worth just as much by the Central Statistical Office indicate other estimates office. For example, in 2010, according to the calculations of analysts GUS prostitution, drugs and smuggling were worth 1.17 percent. GDP – that is 16.6 billion zł. For earlier years, the CSO enumerated her to 0,98-1,31 per cent. GDP.
Piotr Niemczyk, president of the company dealing with business information, some doubts on these estimates. In his opinion, these 16 billion zł from illegal sources is a lot compared to the size of the shadow economy – that is a legal activity, but undisclosed. Sam CSO assesses its size at 13-14 percent. GDP.
Economists point out that an increase in GDP by income from prostitution and trafficking and drug production is good news for the government, which intends to reduce the public finance deficit below 3 percent. GDP next year.
Prostitution, drug trafficking and smuggling will help the government reduce the deficit. But slightly
Less than 1 percent. – So much to increase GDP by taking into account the results of the national accounts of illegal activity. CSO has to do it, because these are the findings of the European Commission. Officially, the Commission’s point is that thanks to the new uniform rules of calculating GDP across the European Union to be able to verify the size of the membership fees paid by the individual countries of the community. Counting illegal economy to GDP is happening on the adoption of new accounting rules (ESA 2010), according to which all member states have to calculate their gross domestic product.
Office re-convert the data for previous years (starting from 1995.), changes include, among others, such size as output, consumption, export and import. Its findings will announce in two weeks. Until then, do not want to disclose or methodology applied in calculating the scale of the black areas of the economy, nor the more detailed results. The fact that GDP will grow by less than 1 percent., Is so far the only information that is shared.
Attempts to estimate the illegal economy, the CSO undertook earlier. He is the Centre for the Study of Economy unobserved in the Statistical Office in Kielce, who has specialized in measuring the informal economy. The gray zone is different from the black, that – in short – includes activities in principle legitimate, but undisclosed. So for example. Untaxed sale or hiring black.
Analysts office in Kielce, calculating the volume of illegal activity, relied on administrative data sources, reaching m.in after reports of research centers, research institutions , the police and other departments, information from the ministries. GUS alone was carrying out research – with the exception of checking the consumption of cigarettes, which helped him to estimate the scale of smuggling. In calculating the value of contraband analysts CSO focused precisely on the smuggling of tobacco products, considering that he dominates the market smuggling.
Economists point out that the side effect of adopting a new method of calculation of gross domestic product will decrease the public deficit, calculated as a percentage of GDP. But – add – this change is not as significant as a year ago, when the discussion on the risk of public debt exceeding safety thresholds (calculated as a percentage of the GDP).
– After taking over the assets of the funds in bonds and the redemption of the debt the government no longer has a knife at his throat, so the case of a new calculation of the GDP is now less important. Although probably it will be helpful in the implementation of a plan to reduce the deficit next year to below 3 percent. GDP – says Rafał Benecki, chief economist at ING Bank.
Mateusz Szczurek finance minister declared recently that the deficit will fall next year to 2.7 percent. GDP, which is below the required level by the European Commission 3 percent. GDP. Expert ING calculates that an increase in GDP of approx. 15-16 billion zł – that is, the value of the proceeds of prostitution, smuggling, and drug trafficking – can go further reduced to 2.68 per cent.
– It’s a small change – notes.
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