Cheapest oil since 2009. – Interia

Cheapest oil since 2009. – Interia

This is good news for consumers and the country oil importers, exporters worse for her and the oil industry. Analysts are not beyond doubt that the price of around 100 dollars. long barrel will not see.

“In 2015, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will be $ 68, compared with 100 in 2014 dollars and 109 dollars in 2013″ – predicts the US Energy Information Administration.

Morgan Stanley analysts assume that the price will increase from the second quarter of 2015., Also in 2016. (Annualized reaching $ 88) and in 2017. (An average of $ 100.). In 2018. The price trend reverses again, and the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil falls to $ 92.

Cheap oil – they say – will spur global growth and reduce inflation, what most benefit importers: Japan, the countries of Southeast Asia (Thailand, Korea, Taiwan), Turkey and eurostrefa. Losing will be the countries of Latin America and emerging markets dependent on exports of fuels, primarily Russia, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria.

According to Morgan Stanley, global GDP can be higher by 0.2-0.3 percent. compared to the expected 3.5 per cent., the calculated assuming that the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in 2015. will be $ 88.

Analysts point to several reasons for such a large depreciation of raw material from the middle of the year. First, the slowdown of European economies and China, on the other hand, the oversupply of the raw material associated with the shale revolution in the US, which also coincided with the November decision of OPEC, which supplies the world market for one third of the production, with its upkeep at 30 million barrels per day.

Some experts also draws attention to the financial factors. – Oil over the last few years was one of several speculative bubbles that have been created by QE programs (called. Quantitative easing, loosening ilościwe, or increasing the money supply – PAP). Its price had nothing to do with the foundations. There is no oil in the world such that it would cost 110 dollars. per barrel, unless he drilled her golden drills. Today, the equilibrium price of oil is approx. $ 40. per barrel, and for doing it fast moving – said inde pendent analyst Andrew Szczęśniak fuels.

As a proof of financial speculation investors cites New York Stock Exchange data fuels. – At one turn physical, so. oil wet (wet oil) is 2 to 2.5 thousand. oil paper sales operations, that is, oil on paper. The price so determined financial instruments. Now we have to deal with escaping from the market, hence the high drop – Szczęśniak says.

A similar view is an expert in the field of energy Tomasz Chmal of White and Case law firm. – It seems that in recent years the oil market, there was a speculative bubble. Now she breaks. This bubble Maria Peszek prices enormously, its peak in 2008., Then there were dips and corrections, but the average price per barrel stood at over 80 dollars. Meanwhile, 10 years ago, the average price per barrel was approx. 34 USD., And before it was even cheaper. This means that in the last 10 years we have had a threefold increase in prices. This resulted in an increase in investment and production, attempts were made to explore the very difficult areas like the Arctic. It can not be ruled out that now we have to deal with the retreat from the market – told PAP Chmal.

In his opinion, the price of 100 dollars. a barrel is not reasonable. Like Szczęśniak, he draws attention to the oversupply of money created by the QE programs, and that had to be invested somewhere. – It hit for raw materials and oil, accelerated investment was the situation. Now it turns out that there is no such requirement. Works psychological mechanism that causes that many nerves let go – he adds.

As for the projected price per barrel Chmal is cautious, but – as emphasized – it can not “fall to the point of absurdity,” because no one will produce.

– You have to remember that the cost of production, depending on the deposit and the country, are varied. The Saudis have the cheapest bed – mining costs a few dozen dollars per barrel. $ 40 for them. per barrel will be profitable. But apart from others of Saud are, after all – even the companies operating on the North Sea shelf, which produce much more expensive. It may happen that these prove to be overvalued bed – she says.

These things are happening now. As he spoke recently at the BBC head Brindex industry association, which brings together independent oil and gas producers operating in the UK Continental Shelf Robin Allan, declines in oil prices in the world make the British oil sector is on the verge of collapse. Many companies, such as BP and ConocoPhillips have announced job cuts. According to experts in the coming months you can expect a significant reduction in employment in the whole sector, which currently employs in the UK approx. 375 thousand. people.

cut costs, not only the British. As reported in mid-December, “Financial Times”, including Shell, Chevron cut wages for self-employed workers. FT noted that North Sea production declines, research aimed at identifying new fields do not produce the expected results, and the rising cost of extraction, reaching in hand with a complex tax system meant that some fields have become increasingly risky.

Senior Analyst (Senior Analyst) at NRG Expert Edgar van der Meer, in an interview with PAP no doubt, you should not expect significant projects in areas where oil production is already relatively expensive, so in North American shale deposits or deep-sea areas.

– At current oil demand forecasts and announcements maintain the current level of production, there are indications that the downward trend in oil prices is likely to continue. At lower prices natural thing would be an increase in demand for oil and the producers will want to keep up increasing the production we may witness further price reductions – said van der Meer.

In his view, the reduction in prices on world markets may continue to act and we can experience even at the price of $ 45-50 per barrel in extreme situations. It is not impossible that in such an unstable environment, prices may bounce up to the level of $ 70. – In the medium term, however, expect to shape the average price level in the range of $ 65-75 per barrel – forecasts.