Yesterday’s unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank to abandon the defense of the Swiss franc against the euro caused chaos in the markets, 20 percent. depreciation of the zloty and rising concerns about the amount of household commitments. On the changes they will lose not only the borrower and the banking sector, but also the entire economy – all because of the shift of several billion dollars per year with the purpose of consumption in higher monthly repayment installments in the Swiss currency.
– Even on Monday, the bank representative said that the maintenance of a fixed or minimum euro-franc exchange rate at the level of 1.20 is the foundation of the monetary policy of the Bank. And three days later, on Thursday, the bank abolished the defense of the course, which completely lost credibility – says in an interview with news agency Newseria Ignacy Morawski, chief economist at Bank of FDI.
On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank lifted established in 2011 pegged the franc to the euro at 1.20. Gold 3.54 level dropped by tens of cents and stabilized at around 4.10-4.20 zł, and immediately after the decision reached up to 5.19 zł. In addition, the SNB lowered the interest rate from -0.25 to -0.75, which, however, failed to offset the effects of the decision to abandon the relationship franc to the euro.
– I understand that the Swiss have come to the conclusion that a strong currency do es not harm them, and printing francs to prevent the strengthening of the course is too risky. Let me remind you, however, that they defend the franc against the strengthening, not weakening. They could do this forever, so that you can print its own currency as much as you want – explains Morawski.
In his opinion, the Swiss National Bank decision stems from the belief that a strong currency does not matter too much of the local economy. In the markets, however, it caused shock and chaos. At Thursday’s session on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index most sensitive to the message of the banking sector SNB WIG-banks fell by 5.46 per cent. Most were down Getin Noble Bank (-16.10 per cent.) And Millennium (-10.32 per cent.).
– Increase franc for the Polish economy is a bad thing for two reasons: first, hit the pockets of a few hundred thousand people who have loans in Swiss francs. Secondly, causing injury to the balance sheets of banks, which will affect the profitability of the banking sector and its tendency to lend – explains chief economist at Bank of FDI.
Moravian notes that the impact on the Polish economy will not be strong, but still negative. In his opinion, it is important, at what level course CHF / PLN eventually stabilize. This may be the value of both 3.80 and 4.50 zł per Swiss franc.
– It seems to me that a lot will also depend on the political factor. If politicians began to actively propose solutions leading to support people who have loans Franks, eg. At the expense of the banks, it can occur even greater uncertainty in the banking sector, which may have more negative consequences – says the expert.
According to him after yesterday’s decision of the Swiss bank’s credibility has fallen sharply, and its possible subsequent interventions will be less reliable, and therefore also less effective.
– We can imagine both a strong inflow of capital to Switzerland because of the fact that the country is regarded as one of the sa fest in the world. People buy Swiss assets just to preserve capital, and not just to make money. On the other hand, low interest rates in Switzerland in the near term could lead to a weakening of the franc – predicts Ignacy Morawski.
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