On an annual basis NBP reference rate will continue to be 2.00 per cent., The lombard rate at 3.00 per cent., The deposit of 1.00 per cent., While the rediscount rate of 2.25 percent. Economists predict, however, that this quarter will face cuts stop.
deflation favors low economic activity in the world
In its Communication Council also indicates the cause of low inflation. Pointed out that “the increase in global economic activity remains moderate,” and also in the last month, still strongly decreased the price of oil. “
” With moderate economic growth in the world is conducive to maintaining a very low inflation in many countries and contributed to the occurrence of deflation in the euro area “- reads.
turn” major central banks continue to expansive monetary policy, keeping interest rates at historically low levels. “In Poland
” labor market data point to a further increase in employment in enterprises, which contributes to the continuation of the decline in unemployment seasonally adjusted “.” At the same time sustained moderate wage growth in the enterprise sector indicates that wage pressure remains limited “- reads.
Beam: prolonged deflation could force the MPC to act
Answering questions at a press conference Belka admitted that “prolonged deflation can be an important factor that the Council will proceed to action”. He noted, however, that the MPC “pursues the inflation target in a flexible way.”
– Do not rule out further monetary policy adjustment, “- he said.” This adjustment is still possible, but there is no reason to hurry up with that “- he added.
Board Member Jan Winiecki added that no one, neither the MPC or, for example. The European Central Bank “does not have a key to sesame,” which would open the back to the target.
The market is not surprised by the decision of the MPC
The MPC decision is not a surprise to economists. Most of them thought that the Council at the January meeting to leave interest rates unchanged. At the same time in all the comments were dominant opinion that the rate will be reduced in this quarter, most likely in February or March.
“The level of interest in maintaining the appeal economic data”
The Economist BZ WBK bank Piotr Bielski said that the decision is not surprising, because the economy there was nothing that could change the attitude of the past. For maintaining the current level of interest speak recently published economic data, as well as the weakening of the zloty. The expert notes that some MPC members wanted to cut rates, fearing strengthening of Polish currency, while the exchange rate has recently declined.
Piotr Bielski believes that interest rates will fall yet, but only when the data show deepening deflation, the price will fall at a rate faster than 1 percent year on year.
Similarly, economist Dariusz Wozniak believes the School of Business in Nowy Sacz. As he says, the impact on the decisions had price stability and economic activity. He added that is good news for households and businesses, because in such a situation is easier to plan expenses or investments. If they are correct in this year they will be rather minimal – predicts economist.
Ignacy Morawski FDI Bank said yesterday that “the decline in inflation is so strong that the rate cut will be added in the quarter, or in February, or in March. ” Opinion reminded MPC member Jerzy Hausner, who belonged to the opponents far lower interest. He did not rule out that he would support a reduction, if deflation will extend into the second quarter. Konrad
Raczko of BOS predicted this year’s one-time reduction in interest rates by 25 bps, but probably not for the first year’s meeting of the MPC. A similar opinion Kamil spoke with mBank Maliszewski, wh o believes that a possible reduction in interest by the Council in February or March may have an influence GUS data on inflation. The closest such information GUS announce on Thursday.
Stanislaw Kluza, an economist at the Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics:
Source: Newseria
Waiting for the decision of the ECB
Analysts also pointed to another fact – JANUARY 22 The European Central Bank is likely to take a decision on the interventionist monetary policy (EQ), consisting eg. on buying government bonds of EU countries. It will be for the MPC another argument in favor of lowering rates at the next meeting – they said.
The chief economist of the brokerage house X-Trade Brokers Przemysław April predicted that the Council will not change in interest not only in this month, but probably not do it during the next few meetings. The expert explained that this is due to the members of the earlier statements that while inflation is very low, but the economy is doing well, and therefore the MPC expects that prices will rise.
MPC is committed to implementation of inflation targeting
expert pointed out, however, that the Council is committed to the policy of inflation targeting, and since this is far away. Established by the Polish National Bank’s inflation target of 2.5 percent.
TFI ING analyst Paul Cymcyk well as changes in interest rates is not expected because of the low rate of the Polish currency. The expert suggests that the weak zloty Polish economy and supports the impact on inflation, which will help achieve these goals, which depends on the Monetary Policy Council
“Against cut rates running weakening of the zloty”
The chief economist at Societe Generale bank Jaroslaw Janecki explained that the interest rate cut work against, inter alia, the weakening of the zloty, which affects the growth of inflation, which acts as lower interest rates.
expert said that the attitude of members of the Board will not change even greater than the current decline in inflation. According to him, deflation may take at least until the end of the second quarter.
The main economist Monika Jacket Postbank said that in January lending rates will not fall, because the current Board members are watching what is happening in the economy after the October rate cut. Expert added, however, that in the near future rate cut is still possible. Indicated that a possible deadline for such a decision depends on the data on economic growth and inflation, as well as economic forecasts, which in March will publish the Polish National Bank. Monika Jacket predicted that rates may be reduced just in March.
Interest rates unchanged. Beam: chose good economic data & gt; & gt; & gt;
Rafal Antczak, a board member of Deloitte:
Source: Newseria
Beam: interest rates may be neither too high nor too low
Ultra low monetary policy by major central banks backfire hits in countries such as Poland – said Wednesday the president of the National Bank of Poland Marek Belka . He added that interest rates can not be neither too high nor too low. The head of the central bank
during his speech at Wednesday’s conference organized by the National Chamber of Commerce pointed out that monetary policy conduct major central banks in the world, including the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve.
– Ultra low monetary policy for countries such as Mexico, Brazil, Korea, but also Poland, is a threat of violent ebb and flow of capital, the destabilization of the exchange rate, practically speaking (…) prevents rational conduct of monetary policy – Beam said.
He referred to at the same time, as in this case, doing the Monetary Policy Council. – The interest rate can not be too high, because then the difference in interest rates be tween us and our nearest big neighbor, which is the euro zone, would that Poland would be the object of short-term capital inflows, mainly in the government securities market. Hence, gold would strengthen what we do not want – said the head of the National Bank of Poland.
– We would like to, especially the finance minister Mateusz Szczurek to Polish bonds interest rate was very low. If we have committed to the fact that this market was a bubble, this bubble always burst – he said.
– At some point, as the interest rate falls rapidly Polish securities, just as quickly after that interest rates could rise. So we are in our monetary policy we look carefully to the bubble in the stock market, even in the asset market, did not exist – he added.
The last cut in October 2014 years
The last time the MPC cut interest rates in October 2014 year. Lowered its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 2 percent. per year. The lombard rate was cut by 100 basis points – to 3.00 per cent., The deposit rate remained unchanged at 1.00 per cent., And the rediscount rate was lowered by 50 basis points to 2.25 percent.
If the president of the National Bank of Poland Marek Belka explained the decision to cut interest rates:
Source: TVN24 / x-news
Today, NBP basic interest rate is 2 percent
IAR / PAP, bless, jk
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