According to experts, the market is a large supply of oil. Daily “Financial Times” emphasizes that exports from Russia and Iraq reached record levels. Americans bring out a lot lately oil from shale, the world demand is moderate, and in addition a strong dollar lowers prices.
benefit the consumers, for example, drivers in Europe, but for exporters – in tymdla Russia – is a serious financial blow.
Analysts have no doubt that the prices in the neighborhood of $ 100. long barrel will not see.
– In 2015, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will be $ 68, compared with 100 dollars in 2014 and 109 in 2013 dollars – predicts the US Energy Information Administration.
CNN Newsource / x- news
Morgan Stanley: the price starts to rise from the second quarter of 2015.
Morgan Stanley analysts assume that the price will increase from the second quarter of 2015., also in 2016. (annualized reaching $ 88) and in 2017. (an average of $ 100.). In 2018. The price trend reverses again, and the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil falls to $ 92.
Cheap oil – they say – will spur global growth and reduce inflation, what most benefit importers: Japan, the countries of Southeast Asia (Thailand, Korea, Taiwan), Turkey and eurostrefa. Losing will be the countries of Latin America and emerging markets dependent on exports of fuels, primarily Russia, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria.
According to Morgan Stanley, global GDP can be higher by 0.2-0.3 percent. compared to the expected 3.5 per cent., the calculated assuming that the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in 2015. will be $ 88. The price of oil fell
2014 almost half.
Source: Bloomberg / x-news
Analysts suggest several reasons for such a large depreciation of raw material from the middle of the year . First, the slowdown of European economies and China, on the other hand, the oversupply of the raw material associated with the shale revolution in the US, which also coincided with the November decision of OPEC, which supplies the world market for one third of the production, with its upkeep at 30 million barrels per day.
Actions financial factors
Some experts also draws attention to the financial factors. – Oil over the last few years was one of several speculative bubbles that have been created by QE programs (called. Quantitative easing, loosening ilościwe, or increasing the money supply – ed. Ed.). Its price had nothing to do with the foundations. There is no oil in the world such that it would cost 110 dollars. per barrel, unless he drilled her golden drills. Today, the equ ilibrium price of oil is approx. $ 40. per barrel, and for doing it fast moving – said independent analyst Andrew Szczęśniak fuels.
As proof of financial speculation investors cites New York Stock Exchange data fuels. – At one turn physical, so. oil wet (wet oil) is 2 to 2.5 thousand. oil paper sales operations, that is, oil on paper. The price so determined financial instruments. Now we have to deal with escaping from the market, hence the high drop – Szczęśniak says.
The British oil sector is on the verge of collapse
As recently told the BBC head Brindex industry association, which brings together independent oil and gas producers operating on the British continental shelf Robin Allan, declines in oil prices on the world make the British oil sector is on the verge of collapse. Many companies, such as BP and ConocoPhillips have announced job cuts. According to experts in the coming months you can expect a signifi cant reduction in employment in the whole sector, which currently employs in the UK approx. 375 thousand. people.
cut costs, not only the British. As reported in mid-December, “Financial Times”, including Shell, Chevron cut wages for self-employed workers. FT noted that North Sea production declines, research aimed at identifying new fields do not produce the expected results, and the rising cost of extraction, reaching in hand with a complex tax system meant that some fields have become increasingly risky.
Marek Belka: keeping my fingers crossed that oil prices have not dropped.
Source: TVN24 Business and World / x-news
IAR / PAP, bless
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