At the end of December 2014, we had 1.8 million registered unemployed, an increase of 332 thousand. less than at the end of 2013 – the Ministry of Labour estimates. The unemployment rate thus shrunk during the year by 1.9 percentage points. – To 11.5 percent.
This year, so there will be a significant improvement. According to the most optimistic forecasts of bankers in December, the unemployment rate has fallen to 10.5 percent. In this scenario, the number of people without a job would fall “only” about 170-175 thousand.
However, taking into account the average of the twelve forecasts of analysts, interviewed by the DGP, the situation is slightly less optimistic. They estimate that the unemployment rate at the end of the year will amount to 10.9 percent. In this case, the army of unemployed would go down only about 110 thousand. people. Classes still would not have 1.7 million Poles.
Even so, it would be a much better result than projected in the assumptions of the budget bill for the year. Here typed 11.8 percent. unemployment, which is higher than it is now. Although the deputy labor minister Jacek Męcina hopes that they will be the months in which to fall even below 10 percent.
Anyway, with all forecasts indicate that this year we will continue to have the employer market. – Market employee appears in us only when the unemployment rate reaches the level of 7-8 per cent. – Assesses Sędzimir Carolina, economist PKO BP.
asked analysts, which would result from a weaker decline in unemployment. – Last year we were in the early stages of economic recovery. In this period, followed by a large increase in investment. I do not think that such a growth rate remained well this year – says Jakub Borowski, chief economist at Credit Agricole. In his opinion, this year the total investments will increase by 7.9 per cent., While in the previous year increased by 9.5 percent. And that is associated with them employment growth.
On the other hand, according to Peter Soroczyńskiego, chief economist of Export Credit Insurance Corporation, a fairly large drop in unemployment in the last year due, inter alia, that a lot of people went to inactivity professional, and therefore no longer looking for work (not registered in labor offices and joined the same statistics). Probably a certain group of people without a job or went abroad. – This is indicated by statistical data. The number of employed increased by 70-80 thousand., And unemployment disappeared four times more – explains Soroczyński.
– The decline in registered unemployment is also a result of last year’s reform of the district labor offices – says Wiktor Wojciechowski , chief economist at Bank Plus. In his view, demonstrated by the fact that registers pośredniaków plotted more unemployed than is the number of people who have taken the job. – Improvements could also result from the fact that the labor offices guided more people to perform tasks subsidized – Wojciechowski added.
This year pośredniaków efficiency may be reduced. – Because in the end will have after the parliamentary elections – notes Lukasz Tarnawa, chief economist at Bank of Environmental Protection. According to him, the Ministry of Labour can therefore have less incentive to finance jobs. – In addition, this year the seasonal rise in unemployment does not have to be as gentle as last year, in which the weather was long favored precarious work – says Tarnawa.
According to experts, many people find time to trade . – Increasing employment will increase Payroll Fund. This in turn will result in a stronger private consumption – explains Marcin Mrowiec, chief economist of Pekao. Also come new jobs in services. – In Poland, employment in them is not as high as in more developed countries – indicates Mrowiec.
In addition, this year the economy will grow slightly faster than last year – according to forecasts GDP growth by nearly 3.4 percent. This will increase the demand for transport of goods. – As a result, new jobs will come also in this industry – expects Sędzimir.
Unemployment is about 332 thousand. less, but jobs only 70-80 thousand. more
The five most important trends in the labor market in 2015. on Forsal.pl
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