World Bank predicts that in 2015 Russia’s economy will shrink by 3.8 percent in 2016 – 0.3 percent. This is a basic scenario is based on a forecast crude oil price of $ 53 per barrel in 2015 and $ 57 in 2016.
“There remain two key political issues – as Russia will adapt to the new oil prices and sanctions; if you take a medium-term perspective, the main problem for Russia is the persistent investment” – quote “Vedomosti” principal economist at the World Bank for. Russia Birgit Hansl.
The reason for the fall in investment two years ago the World Bank as “a crisis of confidence the state called for reform unfulfilled hopes “- report on” Vedomosti “. This crisis, which inhibited growth of the Russian economy began even before the imposition of sanctions related to the conflict in the Ukraine and against a decline in oil prices; further sanctions hit investor confidence.
World Bank report titled “The Beginning of a new era of business?”. “Vedomosti” Director quote WB representative in Moscow Michael Rutkowski, who explained that this new era for Russia indeed different from what it was in 2012-2013. “I would be more optimistic, so we put a question mark” – pointed Rutkowski.
World Bank report assesses, that the economic downturn threatens Russia’s achievements in the social sphere for the last 10 years. In 2015, the number of people living in poverty will increase from the current 11 percent. to 14 per cent., exceeding the level of 2007. This will be the first significant increase in the level of poverty after the crisis of 1998.
“Vedomosti” They cited the statement of the former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin: “The economy stagnating wpadająca the next at least five years – almost like we’re doomed. Even if you start now reforms that they will not take effect within a year or two.”
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