Friday June 24, the day after the British referendum, belonged to the “black” days in the financial markets and the Stock Exchange.
Just before the announcement of the official results of the referendum of the British trading EUR / PLN reached a record level of 4.53 zł, but by the afternoon fell to 4.42; in turn, the USD / PLN fell over Friday from 4.13 to 4.00. Quotations CHF / PLN reached after 7:00 at 4.24, and after the intervention of the Swiss central bank’s rate fell to 4.10 zł.
In the previous Friday the WIG20 at the closing session, fell by a record 4.53 per cent., and wig30 fell as much as 4.55 percent.
a week later, on July 1, the zloty exchange rate and stock market indices were much better. On Thursday, even as a result of rumors about possible additional actions of the ECB, the gold even dynamically strengthened against major currencies, and the quotation EUR / PLN fell to 4.37. On Friday the exchange rate returned to approx. 4.40 zł.
WIG20 noted, in turn, fluctuations in the standard and the closure Friday’s session, fell by 0.35 per cent., and wig30 fell by 0.18 percent.
Premier Law and Justice deputy commented on Friday’s press conference that “after a week of turmoil managed to calm the situation” on the financial markets.
finance Minister Paul Szałamacha added that the situation” largely “returned to the state before Brexitu. “At least when it comes to the profitability of Polish bonds” – he stressed. He stressed that the turmoil was short-lived, lasting only a few days, because markets are based primarily on the results of the Polish economy.
” as for the impact of a more long-term, will depend on whether the politicians on both sides will show the class and how they will negotiate with Britain “- said the Minister of finance. If, however, he added, and overcome the tendency to “punish” the British and their “cut-off” of the common market, it will not be good either for the UK economy, neither the EU nor Polish.
However, interviewed by PAP, analysts do not fully agree with the assessments of government.
Maciej Bitner Wise Europe, in contrast to the head of the Ministry of Finance believes that in the long run more beneficial to the EU, and therefore also the Polish economy would be a quick divorce Britain with the Union.
Quick divorce is indeed greater economic impact in the short term, admits Bitner, but also a greater chance to stabilize the EU and its economy in the future. Because if the UK does not meet the negative economic consequences for Brexit, it will erode the cohesiveness of the EU, because it will be a country that came out and nothing bad happened to him there. “This opens up the prospect of going out to new members and instability across the EU” – noted analyst Wise Europe.
Marek Rogalski of DM BOS admits, however, that the scale to destabilize the gold after Brexicie was not as big as could be expected, as the forecast indicated.
in his view, however, the “space of permanent strengthening of the zloty is small”, and the risk for the zloty may be, for example. expected in mid-July decision of the rating agency Fitch. In the opinion Rogalski currency, which soon could most strengthen the dollar, but it will not be more or Swiss franc or Japanese yen, because the central banks of both countries suggest possible intervention.
“in general, the financial markets are trying to play a scenario in which the process will be up to Brexitu delayed and that the first time he will have mainly local” – says Rogalski .
Analyst BOS notes, however, that whenever a crisis begins, initially the expectation it will have a local dimension. “Therefore, only the fall we will know what is really Brexitu impact on the world economy” – says.
also Rafał Antczak Deloitte believes that the consequences of Brexitu “not likely we will learn not only within weeks, but months, if not years.” “Everything depends on the conditions of the divorce, and these are as yet unknown” – notes.
But this means that now “everything is uncertain, and each subsequent adverse information may be important for the markets.” “What was a stabilizing factor, or some foundations economic policy in Europe has been undermined. Now, each country will pass your test, also Poland” – says Antczak.
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