absolute pain threshold for franc is 6-6.5 zł. This approximate calculation taking into account the size of income frankowiczów and their current load installment.
How do we know? Data on this topic are rudimentary. In a report on inflation from March 2015. Polish National Bank says that as much as 40 percent. currency borrowers are people with a group of 10 percent. households with the highest incomes. Two-thirds of all borrowers currency are those who are in the group of 20 percent. the richest.
Another important variable is the monthly load this income installment loan . When examining the wealth of households at the end of last year, NBP is checked. It came to him that the so-called. indicator (DTI debt to income), which shows an average of 20-25 percent. the franc at 4.11 zł. Research NBP is approximate due to the sample size. But a similar order of magnitude to the data from banks that have substantial mortgage portfolios of foreign currency loans. The report for the first quarter of this year, Bank Millennium said that in case of its loan portfolio frankowych an average of 27 percent. monthly income borrowers goes for repayment. This was at odds 4.07 zł per franc.
Is that a lot or a little? According to a recommendation Financial Supervision Commission banks can individually determine safe – in their opinion – permissible load levels of income rigid expenditure. But KNF recommends S recommendation to retain special care when the indicator DTI reaches 40 percent. for clients with income exceeding the average level of wages in the region of residence, and 50 per cent. for others. So we can assume that if the loan along with other expenses absorb approximately 40 percent. monthly income, it would have an alarm. So, assuming that the franc would strengthen suddenly, and interest rates on loans and the average income Frankowicz would not change, the franc would have to rise in price to 6-6.5 zł to solvency problems were even wealthier customers who among frankowiczów are the predominant group.
This rough estimates, and loan portfolio frankowych is not homogeneous. Otherwise it will look like the pain threshold for loans taken in mid-2008., Otherwise borrowing for eg., In 2006 or 2009. Otherwise loans with low amounts, and otherwise for the largest ones. According to simulations done by the KNF after the release of the franc in January 2015. 6 zł rate for the franc for a loan of 300 thousand. zł (the most popular) of June 2008. would mean an increase in payments for 2967 zł. It is approx. 40 percent. the average income in a group of 20 percent. the richest households.
That Frankowicz are so far fairly immune to fluctuations in the Swiss franc, provide data on the quality of service their loans. Waldemar Rogowski, an analyst at Credit Information Bureau, said the loss ratio of loans frankowych incurred in 2006-2008 (when the franc was the weakest) is currently 2.15 percent. portfolio. In January of 2014. It was 1.85 per cent. After January 2015. When the Swiss central bank released franc, which clearly it strengthened, loss ratio increased to 2 percent. Today it is 2.15 per cent., A total it increased by 0.3 percentage points. This is not a significant change – says Waldemar Rogowski.
In his view, the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations are offset by negative LIBOR and just a big cushion profitable in frankowiczów. Incomes are rising in nominal terms, the real increase is even greater because on deflation. Besides half frankowiczów living in big cities, where incomes are higher definition. If the installment will increase by 100-200 zł per month, for them there will be a heavy burden. The essence of the problem is an increase in the amount of debt compared to the value of real estate – says Waldemar Rogowski.
On the one hand it prevents the example. sale apartment , which was taken credit. On the other – it is a problem for banks, which should have the security of a value higher than the charges which relate to security. Jump franc would mean a significant increase in the number of loans whose LTV (loan-to-value ratio of the collateral value) would exceed 100 per cent. As a result, probably would change the so-called. the risk weight for this type of asset. Theoretically, it can be up to 150 per cent., Which would be important for the calculation of the required level of capital.
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