by Luke Wilkowicz, Grzegorz Osiecki 06/07/2016, 7:39; Update: 06/07/2016, 8:09
Optimistic forecasts for the system until 2060 do not include the expected lowering of the retirement age . Developed by ZUS document envisages three scenarios: optimistic, medium and pessimistic. In the first two the amount of the deficit will continue to grow, but in relation to gross domestic product shortage will be smaller than it is today. Subsidies to pensions the state will have to spend proportionately less than today. In the scenario, the average deficit in the pension fund is to be reduced from 2.13 percent. Of GDP in 2017. To 1.4 per cent. in 2060. In today’s reality is a decrease of 13 billion zł. In the optimistic scenario to drop to 0.44 percent. Of GDP in 2060.
At the same time greater than it is today part of the benefits paid will be covered with a flowing premium. In the medium variant in 2017. Social Insurance Fund will cover 70 percent. pensions by charging premiums and in 2060. – 77 percent. Optimistic variant predicts that in 2060. 90 per cent. benefits paid will be covered by the premiums paid.
enhancing the balance pension fund is the effect of the defined contribution scheme. – This difference in commitment and ability to implement them in the long run would reach zero. The system is designed so that it does not make permanent deficits, because pays as much as it has – notes prof. Marek Gora of the Warsaw School of Economics, one of the authors of the pension reform of 1999.
On the basis of the forecast ZUS calculated that summed deficits in the pension fund for 2060 at prices of 2014. Amount, depending on the variant, between 1 3 and 3.2 billion zł (76-188 per cent. of GDP). So much for the time you will find in the budget, borrowing, increasing taxes or cutting spending.
There is another side improves the balance of social insurance: the replacement rate (the ratio of pension to the last drawn salary) will drop from approx. 50 percent. now to 30-40 percent. – The impact on long-term balance is that the pensions under the new system will be relatively lower than the pensions of the old – admits Anna Kwiecińska, actuary ZUS.
Quite optimistic forecast assumes, however, today’s legal status, which does not account for the effects of the announced reductions retirement age. This change will definitely have a negative impact on the results of the Social Insurance Fund in the coming years.
– increase in the number of people receiving benefits, a decrease of contributors to the Social Security Fund. As a result, public finances will have less income and more expenditure – notes Jakub Borowski, chief economist at Credit Agricole Bank Poland.
Forecasts for ZUS good but not the best
It is better not to lower the retirement age and stick to the defined contribution scheme – so the experts comment on the results of the forecast pension fund ZUS.
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