on Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance announced that the budget deficit in 2016 was 46.3 billion, or 84.6 percent. plan. Revenues amounted to 314,6 billion UAH, i.e. by 100.3 percent. plan expenses 360,9 billion rubles, ie, 97.9 per cent. plan.
“a Preliminary assessment of budget performance (in 2016. – PAP), in these macroeconomic conditions, that is, with lower economic growth, is a good result. The deficit remains in check," said Skiba.
this year the government has done the maximum level of deficit of 59.3 billion.
“There is a permanent phenomenon by the lack of spending, so naturally, this year too most likely, so be it. What is written in the law this year, the upper limit of the deficit, is the reason conservative, because the deficit will be probably less is written in the law on the budget," he added.
“Much depends primarily on the effects of hardening the tax system and improve tax collection. The result of plexus activities of the Department aimed at improving the collection, such as a Single Control File, along with the creation of data analysis tools with JPK, KAS reform, strengthen risk analysis on the basis of data from the banking system, there is a possibility that tax revenue from the fee may be even higher than the 10 billion that we laid this year," he said.
Skiba reported that it is difficult to assess the scale of the seal of the taxation system in 2016. “Of course, it was less than 10 billion UAH. (…) It requires the collection of data for the full year and comparison with the GDP data, and full data yet," he said.
“Great effects gave a package of fuel, he was the main contribution to the improvement of collection of VAT”, – he noted.
Deputy Minister of Finance has estimated that MF happy with the effects of work aimed at improving tax collection in 2016.
According to Furrow the change in the interpretation of budget revenues received from the sale of LTE frequencies, made by Eurostat is approaching the forecast deficit in the sector of Finance to the end of 2017 to the level of 2.8 percent. GDP.
Skiba said that expectations of deficit of public Finance sector in 2017. must be currently below the level of 2.9%. GDP projected earlier. “The forecast deficit for this year, according to the methodology of ESA’10 – if to oppose it purely on macroeconomic assumptions – reserve at the level of 2.9 percent. GDP, but this change Eurostat, brings us closer to the level of 2.8 percent. Of GDP," he said.
the information received via PAP it follows that Eurostat is likely that 9.2 billion rubles received from the sale in 2016. rights on the LTE frequencies should be distributed accounting for 15 years and will not be fully recorded as budget impact 2016. This change, on the one hand, will increase the deficit of public Finance sector in previous years, including in 2016, and the other will decrease in 2017. in the following years.
“Bookkeeping, income from shares LTE frequencies will be distributed for many years, as rent, not as the effect of one-year. They were supposed to be minor adjustments made for prior years, but will positively affect future years," said Skiba.
Skiba told REUTERS that the accumulation of the distributed proceeds from the sale of the right to frequency of the last dozen years, will lead to the accountant, the growth of budget revenues in 2017. approx. at the level of 1.0 billion rubles, which will reduce the deficit of public Finance sector in 2017. approx 0.05%. percent. GDP.
at the same time remove the amount of 9.2 billion of revenue in 2016 have increased – in the evaluation of a Furrow – the deficit for the previous year by 0.5 percentage points. percent. Given this fact, the MOF believes that the deficit of public Finance sector in 2016. was 2.8-2.9 percent. GDP.
Skiba reported that in the April Update of the Convergence Plan the government is introducing macroeconomic indicators at levels equal to that recorded in the law on the budget for 2017. “We are not planning changes,” said Skiba RAR. “These assumptions remain valid and will be valid until substantially different data. These assumptions are illustrative in nature, because the aim is only to justify the respect of budget revenues. Changes may occur in the structure of GDP, which in the main indicators, but the size of the estimated income works, the correction of these assumptions is not required," he added.
the law of the budget for 2017. saved GDP growth at 3.6 percent. średnioroczną and inflation at 1.3 percent.
at the same time Skiba added that it is likely that average annual inflation this year is formed at a higher level than 1.3 percent, what may indicate, in particular, high inflation after December 2016.
“Risks to inflation średniorocznej in the mountain,” he said. He added that “all expect that inflation will be higher.”
In December, according to data of GUS of prices of goods and services rose 0.8 percent. rdr vs 0.0%. rdr in November.
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