Interest rates unchanged in Poland – Money.pl

Interest rates unchanged in Poland – Money.pl

2015-01-14 12:59

Author: (PZ), (eds AND)

[Photo: Adam tumor / Reporter]

Update, hours. 16.20

The Monetary Policy Council kept the interest rates in Poland at the current level. The decision is in line with previous estimates. At the same time the MPC reiterated in his statement that does not rule out further monetary policy adjustments if GDP growth will slow down.

As reported for the Polish Press Agency, 22 of 23 respondents its economists found that during the January meeting of the MPC did not change interest rates in Poland.

To cut the NBP interest rates, in their opinion, however, has reached the end of this quarter. It is believed that 14 of the 23 experts. 10 of them in turn expects that the Monetary Policy Council will decide on it in March. And this expectation is confirmed MPC itself issued a press release. It says:

The Council underlines that the environment of the Polish economy is still uncertainty as to the future economic situation. If you extend the expected period of deflation and thus increase the risk of inflation to remain below the target in the medium term, and incoming data will be confirmed slowdown in economic activity and maintain a low growth environment of the Polish economy, the Council does not rule out further monetary policy adjustment.

In support of today’s decision reads: In November consumer price index remained negative and was lower than expected, coming in at -0.6 percent. y / y. Was accompanied by a decrease in core inflation indicators, which confirms – by MPC – lack of demand pressures in the economy.

The main interest rate in Poland is therefore referred to as 2 percent. The last change occurred in October 2014 year. Then – to the surprise of most market observers – the reference rate was reduced from 2.5 to 2 percent.

In contrast, most economists surveyed earlier this year by Money.pl expects, however, that in 2015 the MPC decides to to cut interest rates. Most of the shows that will be one reduction of 0.25 percentage points. Ernest Pytlarczyk, chief economist at mBank goes a step further, forecasting two cuts to 1.5 percent.

Economist	Authority	Foot ref. XII.2015
Grzegorz Ogonek	ING	2
Paul Radwanski	BGZ	2
Marta Zagajewska	Raiffeisen Bank	1.75
Lukasz Tarnawa	BOS Bank	1.75
Maciej Reluga	BZ WBK	1.75
Arkadiusz Krześniak	Deutsche Bank	1.75
Ernest Pytlarczyk	Mbank	1.5

Source: Money.pl based on estimates collected from economists.

– MPC may cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage point, probably no earlier than March, if the data on economic activity at the beginning of 2015 years turn out to be weaker than expected – says Arkadiusz Krześniak.

The Economist points out that at the same time, the US central bank will probably choose to raise interest rates. – Polish economy, like other countries in the region (Czech Republic, Hungary) should be less sensitive to the Fed raising rates by the middle of next year, though undoubtedly increase the volatility of asset prices in emerging markets, including stronger changes in exchange rates – explains the economist.

The reduction in interest rates that would be good news for mortgage holders in the Polish currency. Should favor the decrease the amount they paid installments. Scale will not be significant.