Declines in fuel prices increasingly clear – Onet.pl

Watchers for a few days declines in wholesale fuel prices open the way for further reductions in fuel prices on the domestic stations. Since the beginning of July, gasoline and diesel have become cheaper wholesale respectively 10 and 7 gr./l net gr./l net. In addition, there is room for further declines in wholesale prices, so we can next week expected to fall in prices of gasoline at the pump an average of 8 gr./l and diesel by about 5 gr./l.

Most likely, holiday peak price of gasoline is already behind us. In early June, a liter of gasoline paid 4.55 PLN / l. Currently, prices are on average 9 gr./l lower and unlikely us to the end of holiday pay noticeably more.

still it looks favorably compare prices year-on-year, as both petrol and diesel are 50 gr./l cheaper. A liter of LPG costs while nearly 30 gr./l less than last year.

Declines in fuel prices in the country the effect of the correction on the oil market. After growth in the vicinity of $ 53 / bbl in the first half of June, oil prices began to fall. Today, Brent crude in London costs $ 46 / bbl. The impact of lower oil prices on domestic fuel prices has been somewhat limited by the increase in the USD / PLN – drop in oil prices in US dollars is less.

reductions in oil prices is the result of a general deterioration in sentiment. The problem is that while global growth of oil production in countries outside OPEC and inventories slowed down, this again is a great unknown on maintaining the pace of growth in the global economy and thus fuel consumption. Currently on the market are coming analysis and estimates of the largest financial institutions on the impact of the exit UK from the EU’s GDP and other countries across the euro area. There are voices that Brexit can hamper or even destroy improving economic outlook in the euro area.

However, according to the latest figures EIA US crude oil inventories fell 2.2 million bbl which is much less than the market expected the API (down 6.7 million bbl). In addition, small scale was a decrease in reserves of finished products. Inventories of oil and gasoline in the week ending July 1 fell by 1.6 and 0.1 million bbl / d. Despite the observed historically high level of gasoline consumption in the US market scale of the decline in crude oil inventories and gasoline is too small for the observed deterioration in sentiment on the financial markets and the rise in risk aversion, affect the larger increases in oil prices. Over the past four weeks the average consumption of gasoline in the US stood at a historically high level of 9.76 million bbl / d which is 2% above the level of the previous year and nearly 7% above the five-year average for the same period. The problem is that at any moment, gasoline consumption in the US (whose share in the structure of US fuel consumption is currently 47%) reaches a seasonal peak – last year it was mid-July. This in turn means that the scale of the decline in crude oil inventories in the US may slow down, and their level is still historically high, after all. Of course, much will depend on the level of production and imports. Last week, oil production in the US fell surprisingly many – close to 0.2 million bbl / d to 8.43 million bbl / d and is now 1.2 million bbl / d lower than in the previous year. This should be a sufficient factor to keep oil prices above $ 40 / bbl.