IMF now predicts that Polish GDP will grow by 3.4% in 2018. Photo: Glow Images / East News
At the beginning of May. Fund predicted GDP growth this year at 3.6 per cent., And later signaled that growth will remain strong in 2016. And accelerate to close to 4 percent. in 2017.
The IMF now predicts that Polish GDP will grow by 3.4 percent. in 2018., by 3.2 percent. in 2019. and after 3.1 percent. 2020 and 2021. is given in the Communication on the completion of consultations with the Polish.
The economy is growing well, but there are dangers
“The economy is growing strongly but external factors continue to affect inflation. Unemployment has fallen sharply, and the economy operating almost at full capacity. We expect that growth will remain strong in 2016. and accelerate to 3.7 per cent. in 2017. thanks to strong private consumption, which supports the new program benefits for children, while in the medium term growth rate goes to moderate. a positive output gap next year should help to gradually steer inflation toward the central bank’s target by the end of 2017. ” – Reads the release.
The Fund draws attention that the implementation of election promises will lead to an increase in the budget deficit to 2.8 percent. Of GDP in 2016. And to exceed the limit of 3 percent. Of GDP in 2017. At the same time it stresses that since 2018. Government plans to return to fiscal consolidation order of 3/4 percentage point. GDP per year.
IMF forecasts for Polish
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (% change) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| domestic demand (% change) | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| private consumption (% change) | 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| public consumption (% change) | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| gross fixed capital formation (% change) | 5.8 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| contribution to GDP growth: stocks (% change) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| contribution to GDP growth: external demand. net (% change) | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| CPI average (%) | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| CPI inflation at end of period (%) | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| unemployment rate (average LFS) | 7.5 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| debt of general government (% of GDP) | 51.3 | 51.9 | 52.9 | 53.2 | 52.8 | 52.3 | 51.6 |
| balance on the current account balance (% of GDP) | 0.2 | 0.7 | -1.3 | -2 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
Falling profitability of the banking sector
According to the IMF the Polish banking sector is well capitalized, but the fall of his income. Furthermore, “proposals for conversion of loans denominated in foreign currencies for the buck – provided they are implemented – can undermine financial stability (sector) and even more so to strain the confidence of the market” – said in a statement.
In a broader discussion of the report which provided the IMF, showing some aspects of the Polish economy, were discussed among other issues such as a lack of balance in the development and growth of income between Polish western and eastern and differences in productivity in those regions too low participation of women in the labor market and the macro and microfinance the implications of the new bank tax.
the authors also point to the risks associated with a further decrease in revenues of the banking sector, resulting from the introduction of a new tax, which could translate into a slowdown in the real economy.
However, Fund “approved the information that the authorities are willing to assess the impact of new tax and adjust it if necessary, and appealed to them to consider (model) tax more favorable growth” – we read in the discussion of the report.
regional inequalities
the authors believe, however, that the overall growth did not translate into equally successful on different regions. “Reducing these regional differences (…) will foster faster economic growth,” – says the discussion.
IMF recommends for this purpose investments in public infrastructure, the use of tax incentives that would attract investors to selected regions and to increase labor mobility.
According to the authors, one of the reasons why regional differences persist – such as structural unemployment – it is the fact that Poland is characterized by relatively low labor mobility, which is related in part to the small availability of housing for rent.
as part of the mandatory review of the economic Member States (Article IV of the articles of Association of the IMF) experts Fund visit every year individual countries, meet with representatives of the government, central bank and selected institutions, gather information and then analyze the situation economic Member States. “After returning to headquarters staff (IMF) to prepare a report as a basis for discussion Executive Directors (the Fund),” – says the IMF.
“Board of Executive Directors of the IMF noted the rapid economic growth Polish (…) reflecting the progress which in recent years has made it in building strong foundations “- written in the message.
the appreciation of expansionary monetary policy
it was noted that the Council well assessed the current an expansionary monetary policy, which is considered the proper way to promote economic growth, however, expressed concern about the effect of the new bank tax, which may lead to a reduction in credit availability and slowing economic growth.
the Board of Directors also considers that it should be very cautious approach to restructuring plans of mortgage loans denominated in foreign currencies – “any decision on this matter should be decided taking into account its impact on banks and financial stability” – warns the IMF.
Article IV of the Statute of the IMF from 2011 introduces the need to conduct annual reviews of the economies of the member countries of the Fund. After review of the IMF publishes a statement on the current economic situation; It is also preparing a detailed report on the state of the economies under review. As part of the maintenance of these estimates also implementation of the recommendations of the Fund.
Tomasz Kaczor, chief economist at BGK:
Source: Newseria
ISBnews / PAP, Celebrating
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