By the next edition of the report “Global Defense Outlook 2016. Shifting Postures and Emerging Fault Lines”, prepared by the consulting firm Deloitte, Poland was among the countries that 2020 will record a clear economic growth and at the same time significantly increase their defense budgets. This is all the more important that in addition to the fight against terrorism and cyber-threats one of the potential risks in the area of military might be the dividing line between NATO and Russia in the region of Central and Eastern Europe.
Spending on defense 50 countries-leaders in the field of defense, where the total budget for military purposes exceeds 95 percent. all global defense spending, 2020 will remain rather unchanged and amount to little more than 1.6 trillion dollars. As many as 92 per cent. defense budgets at the disposal of states that from 2011 modernizing their defense strategies.
– Between 2016 and 2020 twelve countries from the group of leaders will reduce their spending by 44 billion, including the US by as much as 38 billion. In turn, the sixteen countries will increase the budget by more than a billion dollars a year, adding to the global defense budget by 91 billion. As much as 80 percent. this sum will provide increased military spending in China, India, South Korea and Australia – explains Piotr Swietochowski, Director of the Audit Department, an expert. defense industry, Deloitte.
This year, Deloitte experts for the first time presented indicator Defense Posture Index, showing the scale of involvement of individual countries in the field of defense. At his level consists of seven factors: the share of the defense sector in the GDP in the labor market, government expenditure tax, the total number of nuclear warheads, external conflicts, the number of deaths on the battlefield and arms exports. Decisions taken by the State in these seven areas reflect his total commitment to the field of defense. As it turns out, this ratio calculated for the entire group of 50 countries declined from 100 starting points in 2011. To 98 points now. The highest DPI is Russia, Israel and the US (180), and the lowest, Denmark, Indonesia and South Africa (66). Six of the ten countries with the highest scores are both nuclear powers. Ranking Defense Posture Index shows that only 9 of the 50 states, has increased its commitment in the defense in the last five years. Only one of them (France) lies in Europe, and the remaining eight in Africa, Asia Pacific and the Middle East.
The report is divided into 50 states spenders of funds for the army into five groups in terms of projected growth rates economy in the years 2016-2020 and the growth of defense spending (Higher-growth Spenders, Economizers, Higher-growth balancers, Lower growth-balancers, Outliners).
– Poland was the only one among all the countries in Europe qualified for the group Higher-Growth Spenders, which states that in those years they were planning to increase defense budgets in the most dynamic level of 3-7 percent. annually. In addition to Polish, the group, which counts 14 countries, were also among Australia, China, India, Israel, Pakistan and Morocco. This group is responsible for 27 percent. global defense budget – says Piotr Swi.
According to experts Deloitte, despite weakening commitment to defense spending on a global scale, economic factors contribute to the formation of more and stronger tensions between the superpowers. As a result, throughout the world there are new dividing lines, which are countries signal to wiser and more strategic approach to investment in the defense, to be able to confront emerging threats and their consequences for the whole world.
source: Deloitte
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