Economic situation and remain unchanged government budgets on defense mean that the world economy increasingly becomes independent from the development of the military sector. Spending 50 countries-leaders in the field of defense will be about 1.6 trillion dollars by 2020. By the next edition of the report “Global Defense Outlook 2016. Shifting Postures and Emerging Fault Lines”, prepared by the consulting firm Deloitte, Poland was among the countries that 2020 will record sharp growth, while improving significantly its defense budgets. This is all the more important that in addition to the fight against terrorism and cyber-threats one of the potential risks in the area of military might be the dividing line between NATO and Russia in the region of Central and Eastern Europe.
Spending on defense 50 countries-leaders in the field of defense, where the total budget for military purposes exceeds 95 percent. all global defense spending, 2020 will remain rather unchanged and amount to little more than 1.6 trillion dollars. As many as 92 per cent. defense budgets at the disposal of states that from 2011 modernizing their defense strategies.
“Between 2016 and 2020 twelve countries from the group of leaders will reduce their spending by 44 billion, including the US by as much as 38 billion. In turn, the sixteen countries will increase the budget by more than a billion dollars a year, adding to the global defense budget by 91 billion. As much as 80 percent. this sum will provide increased military spending in China, India, South Korea and Australia, “- explains Piotr Swietochowski, Director of the Audit Department, an expert. defense industry, Deloitte.
This year, experts Deloitte time first presented indicator Defense Posture Index, showing the scale of involvement of individual countries in the field of defense. At his level consists of seven factors: the share of the defense sector in the GDP in the labor market, government expenditure tax, the total number of nuclear warheads, external conflicts, the number of deaths on the battlefield and arms exports.
The decisions taken by the state in these seven areas reflect his total commitment to the field of defense. As it turns out, this ratio calculated for the entire group of 50 countries declined from 100 starting points in 2011. To 98 points now. The highest DPI is Russia, Israel and the US (180), and the lowest, Denmark, Indonesia and South Africa (66). Six of the ten countries with the highest scores are both nuclear powers. Ranking Defense Posture Index shows that only 9 of the 50 states, has increased its commitment in the defense in the last five years. Only one of them (France) lies in Europe, and the remaining eight in Africa, Asia Pacific and the Middle East.
The report is divided into 50 states spenders of funds for the army into five groups in terms of projected growth rates economy in the years 2016-2020 and the growth of defense spending (Higher-growth Spenders, Economizers, Higher-growth balancers, Lower growth-balancers, Outliners). “Poland was the only one among all the countries in Europe it qualified for the group Higher-Growth Spenders, which states that in those years they were planning to increase defense budgets in the most dynamic level of 3-7 percent. annually. In addition to Polish, the group, which counts 14 countries, were also among Australia, China, India, Israel, Pakistan and Morocco. This group is responsible for 27 percent. global defense budget “- says Piotr Swi.
According to experts Deloitte, despite weakening commitment to defense spending on a global scale, economic factors contribute to the formation of more and stronger tensions between the superpowers. As a result, throughout the world there are new dividing lines, which are a signal for countries to smarter and more strategic approach to investment in the defense, to be able to confront emerging threats and their consequences for the whole world.
the report defines a new “dividing lines”:
• Russia / NATO – Combining the immediate vicinity, the increase in the threat from armed forces near the borders of Russia and countries belonging to NATO and the lack of mechanisms for arms control and capabilities in crisis management has created a new dividing line in Europe, increasing the risk of accidental conflict.
“This issue also applies to Polish and will be discussed at the NATO summit held in Warsaw. Suffice it to say that in our country and other countries in the region will be 250 armored vehicles belonging to the NATO forces and 4.2 thousand. US soldiers. US to strengthen its presence in Central Europe will spend 3.4 billion dollars in fiscal year 2017. The year before, it was 789 million dollars, “- says Piotr Swi. By 2020, Poland will increase its defense budget by $ 2 billion. At the same time, the Baltic countries increase their budgets by 40 percent.
• China / Asia Pacific – The deepening division has its roots in the growth of the importance of maritime trade for the economies of the Asia Pacific region and the lack of international regulations legal treaties and institutions equipped with the tools to reconcile the contradictory economic interests of countries.
• terrorist organizations / State – the deepening conflict between the terrorist groups and state governments against which these groups are present, the lack of local or international institutions dealing with the problems of terrorist activities and access to modern tools and new technologies suggest that the challenges of terrorism not soon cease. As many as 92 per cent. 65 thousand. terrorist attacks between 2005 and 2014 occurred in the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. At the same time, the world’s terrorist attacks killed ponad143 thousand. humans.
• Mature / emerging nuclear powers – There is a new global dividing line showing that the spread, inadvertent use or even theft of nuclear weapons or fissile materials is becoming increasingly likely as not modified the general international rules governing the use of this dangerous weapon.
• economy based on information / emerging economies – There is a group of countries that is more dependent on services and infrastructure operating on the basis of the internet. The so-called. Group of countries “Cyber 10″, which lead South Korea, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark and Finland are six times more vulnerable to cyber attacks than ten countries least threatened with the end of the Top 50.
“The digitization of the state in the area the use of industrial control systems (ICS), and associated infrastructure has a strong relationship with the risk of cyber attack. While the systems of industrial control are widely used in many countries, the 10 most addicts digitally countries of this kind of technology, is 40 times more exposed to the dangers of the Internet than countries with less mature and infrastructure of this type and unplugged from the Internet, “- says Marcin Ludwiszewski, Director, Leader of Deloitte area of cyber-security.
Chart: Digital Addiction countries from industrial control systems exposed to the Internet network, broken down GDP
Deloitte
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