S & P still fears for the independence of the National Bank of Poland – Republic

After the January S & amp; P Polish unexpectedly downgraded from A- (7th grade) and immediately gave a new assessment of a negative outlook, Friday’s decision was widely expected by economists. None of the 14 surveyed by “Parkiet” experts did not expect to change the rating or its prospects.

In January, analysts S & amp; P pointed out that the new government disturbed the institutional balance in Poland, including paralyzing the Constitutional Court and trying to subjugate the public media. It was the main prerequisite for the credit rating declines, although the agency also stressed that the new government came down from the path traced by their predecessors gradual reduction of the public finance deficit. In turn, the negative outlook, which means 33-percent. the likelihood of another cut in the rating horizon of two years (currently 18 months), reflecting mainly a threat to the independence of the central bank.

in a statement on Friday, analysts S & amp; P emphasize that TK is still paralyzed, combined with uncertainty about the state of public finances in the coming years could undermine investor confidence in the Polish and consequently inhibit its growth rate. They also believe that there is still a risk of undermining the independence of the NBP by the government. Test for central bank will, according to them the law on currency translation of loans frankowych, which could require the involvement of the NBP.

Compared to January, the S & amp; P raised slightly the forecast growth in Polish GDP this year (from 3.4 to 3 5 per cent.), but lowered the forecast for the coming years. In 2017. The economy is to grow by 3.3 per cent., And in subsequent years by 3.2 percent., 3 per cent. and 2.9 percent. instead of – respectively – by 3.3 per cent., 3.2 per cent. and 3.2 percent. Meanwhile, the government assumes that this year GDP will increase by 3.8 per cent., And in subsequent years the growth will be even accelerated to more than 4 percent. in 2019.

The lower growth forecast Polish GDP in the coming years, analysts S & amp; P explain the one hand, uncertainty among investors and traders, which results in government policy, and on the other hand, the effects of Brexitu. Exit the UK from the EU may indeed temporarily inhibit the growth of not only the British economy, but also eg. Germany, with which Poland has strong links.