the New program involves the construction of housing for the poorest segments of the population rented at rates lower than the market, with the ultimate access to property and support of every citizen who decides to regularly save for housing. So a comprehensive approach has not been for many years, but it also means that this is a complex program. As with its predecessors – the effects of “Housing +”, can not cover with the plans.
And these, admittedly, are not yet fully known, because on the program still is working. At the moment we know that by 2030, the government set itself the goal to raise up to 435 average number of flats per thousand inhabitants (listed in 2014 363,4 apartments). This means that 16 years should be around 2.2 million apartments. Added to that about 800-900 thousand. those that are in poor technical condition. This gives the result at 180-190 thousand rooms a year.
it is Worth Recalling that in the past decade was commissioned after 143 thousand apartments per year, and this is the cumulative result of the efforts of individuals who build on their own needs and developers, municipalities or cooperative. This could suggest that the “Flat +” will lead to the construction of tens of thousands of apartments (Ministers avoid Declaration in this regard) more than production in recent years. It should be borne in mind that the construction budget for rent should be at least partially crowd out private investment, because, if the house is to build a public entity, less will be built by developers and individuals.
in addition, the main provisions of the program suggest that by 2030, should disappear Queuing for a communal apartment. Now on the municipal housing waiting 165,7 thousand families. Most likely, this goal should be achieved not only new investments but also the best use of existing resources. It should be recalled that over the last decade, emerged only 28.3 thousand cafes and communal services, – the data of GUS.
In the end the question remains, long-term savings for housing construction. The idea is that people who are in the special accounts will save money, at least for five years to the amount saved to be spent on housing goals (for example, sale, repair, home construction), will receive not only the interest, not the resulting tax, but also budget surcharge. Unfortunately, additional funds will be able to count only those who will meet the criteria of a profitable, – stated in the National Program of Housing.
Although while this part of the program “the Apartment” as they say in the least, precisely because it has to use more people. According to the Ministry, they say that saving in the system should be up to 7.5 million the number of Poles and this we can achieve in 2025. By this time, the grants budget needs to spend 4.4 billion.
it is Worth noting that a similar product – books utilities – already known to the Poles. For many years their work was spent in total only 4 million. According to the Ministry, they are so optimistic.
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What has failed in the past
the Construction of housing for young and needy, prorodzinna policy and stimulating the economy was postulatem all housing programs of recent governments. Unfortunately, the effects of each of them differ from assumptions. It is worth to remind about it – because the intention of the unsuccessful programs is to draw conclusions.
the Latest program and still existing program – “Housing for young” – is dopłatach budget for the purchase of apartment on credit. He had already cost 1.8 billion rubles. More than half of the planned 3.2 billion. During the 33 months of the subsidy to buy their own “M” entered 71.6 per thousand beneficiaries. It was assumed that the money will use 115 thousand. people, and this goal can be achieved.
the Problem is that the implementation of this program was from one extreme to another. During the first 20 months of the interest of the beneficiaries was not enough. Wanting for a loan apparently arrived only after the election of the liberalization of the rules, and then the money is quickly ended. In record March 2016 beneficiaries have applied for grants of more than 202 million rubles, and five months later insights opiewały has only 15 million rubles, because the use was only money to buy an apartment in 2018.
Such was the effect of the expansion of the catalog of properties that you could buy (including the premises used), and increasing amounts of subsidies for families with children and the liberalization of the criteria for the age. One of the goals of these changes was the increase in the use of funds, families with children. According to the Declaration of the authors of the idea that these beneficiaries of the program was to support especially. In practice, however, they are almost not applied. Just remember that a family with three children, was at the end of 2014, only 0.003 per cent. beneficiaries (data from BGK). It’s hard to be surprised, as the banks know that the cost of maintaining a family with three children, they are without comparison higher than families with one child. This obviously affects the calculation of creditworthiness, and so they often close the way to the credits to buy their own “M” for large families.
the Result of these changes was the rapidly growing popularity of the subsidy program. The changes came into force in September 2015. Immediately reserve in a monthly amount for grants has increased four times. On the popularity scale may indicate that the budget for 2016 was for the cna exhausted in the third month of this year, and less than four months later the information appeared about the close of applications for another year. As quickly as the beneficiaries have received, because half of the budget intended for 2018 (the rules of the program allow you to reserve up to 50 percent. of the money allocated for grants in subsequent years).
Without a doubt, the liberalization of the rules of the program, which was well-received potential beneficiaries, unfortunately, this decision had a negative impact. Despite the fact that after the changes the program even more open to abuse, should focus on clear actions procyklicznym. Changes have occurred in 2015. It was a time in which two years it was possible to speak of a sharp revival of market development. Companies focused on apartments, for example, record sales results and switched on most construction projects in history. Budget money spilling a broad stream to the market added fuel to the fire. Without a doubt, this effect was not intended in the original assumptions of the creators of “Housing for young”.
Once on her, not once
however, this is Not an emergency. It was the same with the end already, pre-program grants interest – “Family.” Its effects also vary from the plan, and the rules have changed dramatically. Recall that in this program the budget was issued for the repayment of approximately half of the interest on housing credits during the first eight years of the loan. Preferential loans were granted in the period 2007-2013. It was assumed that the program will help to get a roof over your head, 315 ths. man, that had to have cost 7.5 billion UAH. It should be noted that second szacowali the effects of the programme in the period from the second half of 2006 until the end of 2011. In practice the program runs longer, which means that it was more expensive for the budget.
Plans quickly proved to be too optimistic in comparison with market realities. In mieszkaniówce lasted, for the arrows and the few who could take advantage of subsidies for housing (and this despite an increase of 30 percent. price limits eligible for additional payments). From month to month, property prices were rising, and the sales offices of developers were queues of those wishing.
but very Quickly it became clear that market conditions will not last forever. The coming crisis and what government subsidies were used few people, was the ideal environment for further liberalization. It entered into force early 2009. The limits of prices, which have the right to surcharge, raised by 8 percent. For this purpose, the mechanism for calculating these limits addicted how much you can spend on an apartment with a surcharge of the cost of construction of residential premises. Those in the boom period grew rapidly, again napompowało limits pricing programs. The result came to pathology in which a meter apartments with budget additional cost in Warsaw it was possible to spend almost 10 thousand rbl. It is possible to buy the fourth, a commercially available flat in the heart of the capital.
After a period of popularity of the program “Family on its” a decision was made to re-lower limits of prices, having the right to surcharge and ultimately about closing a program (such loans were provided in early 2013). With the program benefited a total of more than 192 thousand. households that before the end of the year will cost 3.6 billion rubles (this amount grows each month). In the end, costs may reach approximately 4.9 billion rubles, follows from the forecast of the Ministry, contained in the National Program Housing in 2016. The effects of this program was, so about 40 percent. worse than expected, although to work for a year longer than originally planned.
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Author: Bartosz Turek
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