The first one is based on a regular basis, which is an increase of the rate of inflation plus 20 percent. the growth rate of wages. It has the drawback that due to the low inflation average pension urosłaby only 17 zł. Therefore – according to our information – much more likely is the implementation of a variant in which the majority of pensioners would receive a quota increase (as was the case this year). Is also possible third scenario – mixed. There have been firmly raised the minimum benefits, and the rest would be indexed on a regular basis.
The government will have a hard nut to crack. And all the choices and low inflation. Rate of increase of pensions is calculated by adding the inflation rate and a minimum of 20 percent. wage growth in the year preceding the indexation. Except that the indexation of pensions next year on this principle will be a problem. Economists agree: Polish economy this year credited average annual deflation at 0.5-0.6 per cent., Which means that the calculation of pensions for the purpose of price changes will not be taken into account.
The increase in wages in 2015. Government in the Budget Act estimates at 4.3 percent. This means that if we apply the basic statutory formula, the indexation of pensions in 2016. Would be slightly less than 0.9 percent. In the case of the minimum pension, which is 880 zł, it would translate into an increase of 8 zł incomplete and, in the case of the average pension, which is approx. 2000 zł, the increase would be 17 zł. The government has room for maneuver here, because during the public consultation can go in the direction of the traditional demands of trade unions and give greater increase resulting from the wage rate, for example. Instead of 20 percent. 50 percent wage increase. In this case, the minimum pension would increase by 19 zł, and the average of approx. 42 zł. For those with a pension of more than 4 thousand. zł increase could reach almost 100 zł.
Another possible scenario is a repeat of this year’s mixed valuation model. The government has set the amount of the increase in advance: this year it was 36 zł, but it would probably be another slightly higher sum. Would receive the majority of pensioners. Just like this year, some might expect a traditional formula (inflation plus one fifth of wage growth). Except that would be the people who receive benefits than 5 thousand. zł.
The last possibility is that a large increase in the minimum pension, and for the rest of the plain valorization. For receiving at least would increase eg. By 80 or 100 zł, which called for once the unions. As a result, for example, would increase the minimum pension. From 880 to 980 zł. The rest, as in the previous scenario, would increase resulting from the current model, which is less than 0.9 percent.
The decision on which model is chosen, will determine both the financial capacity of the budget and policy. Because in the background decisions are choices. The government will submit a draft budget which included the sum of increases in September, or at the finish of the election campaign. Votes 8 million pensioners are a tasty morsel. – Symbolic increases would be difficult to accept. The choice will probably be mixed between indexation and the lowest increase in benefits – tells us one of the members of the government. The decision will be made until June, when consulted adjustment has to be a way.
Similarly, analysts believe. – We have an election year, so I would expect a higher valuation than would appear only with dry indicator. Probably the solution will be used this year, which is an increase of the indicator, but with an indication that the increase may not be less than a certain amount – says Kamil Cisowski, an economist at PKO BP. He added that the budget should bear the expense, although there is no price increase also will affect his hiccups. For example, income from VAT, which was forecast on the assumption that this year’s inflation at 1.2 percent.
Henry Nakonieczny of “Solidarity” is that it seems perfectly reasonable to raise the lowest pensions, those below average, but stipulates that if the relationship has not yet dealt indexation issue next year.
How much would it cost? With repetition of this year, ie. valorisation mixed approx. 3.7 billion zł. A minimalist approach – and thus increasing the benefits of less than 0.9 percent. – It is an extra 1.5 billion zł. Only increases the cost of the lowest benefits are indirect variant. At the option of the government in the calculation takes into account half of the increase in wages, you would need to spend 3.7 billion zł. This is all assuming that each 0.1 percentage point. indexation rate increase will cost zł 172 million from the budget. And these are the calculation of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy.
– If you meet the economic growth scenario, the funds for indexation to find. The more that is too low increase in pensions is expected to have negative economic consequences, eg. For consumption. Retirees are people who save enough, most of the money spent on expenses – says Kamil Cisowski. On the other hand, repeat mixed indexation or modification of the current system of large increases in the programming of higher pension expenses in the future.
See illustration to the text in FULL-TIME
Marek Chądzyński, Gregory Osiecki
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