The market will react, but not for long – Puls Biznesu

The uncertainty associated with the change for the political scene is large, but it should not, however, lead to shock. Possible negative reaction should not have long-term character, experts estimate. The first victim selection, however, the nation has been the gold, leaving himself – albeit slightly – in relation to other currencies.

The hot head cools Mariusz Staniszewski, president of Noble Funds TFI. In his opinion, it is true Andrzej Duda is for investors new man, which means uncertainty, but only in the short term. He adds that may react nervously – in the form of temporary evacuation – primarily foreign investors, accustomed to the security and stability that gave the representative of the ruling PO.

This means plunge in Polish currency and government bonds, as well as declines on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In the longer term the situation returns to normal, and the market will follow international trends – calms Mariusz Staniszewski.

The conservative attitude of market participants has also Jaroslaw Niedzielewski of Investors TFI. He believes that due to the imbalanced status quo, investors temporarily halt all activities.

Andrew Duda’s victory may raise eyebrows among foreign investors, because it is quite unexpected event – says Yaroslav Niedzielewski, director of the department of investment in Investors TFI.W his opinion there should be no sale of shares. Managing stresses that in the last decade Polish market and economy already coped deal with many changes and turmoil. Even participation in the government’s Self-Defense did not cause a panic sell-off of Polish assets by foreign investors.

Niedzielewski stresses that many populist slogans in delivering during the presidential campaign, some of them modeled on the Hungarian solutions should not wake up to such concerns which frighten party of former President Komorowski.

– Two, three years ago, foreign investors turned away from Hungary and fled from the market in recent months, however, are increasingly willing to come back, although governments have not changed. Power Orban in Hungary was much more one-sided than is the case for successive governments after the elections in our country. In Poland, the parties all the time they are doomed to the conclusion of “forced” coalition, which often makes it difficult or impossible to implement passwords with which they go to elections. It’s probably a good thing, because they are generally strongly populist and ill – reminds Jaroslaw Niedzielewski.

The cold breathes in turn, Marek Buczak with Quercus TFI. It underlines the importance of increasing uncertainty.

It is estimated that the presidential election set the stage for parliamentary and Andrzej Duda’s win means the strengthening of Law and Justice and increase the probability of losing the autumn of power by the current coalition.

Foreign investors do not like uncertainty, I expect, therefore, that win PiS candidate will be an impulse for correction on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. I also expect a negative reaction to the government bond market. Correction on the shares may, however, be short and relatively shallow – predicts Marek Buczak. It also highlights the potential risks arising from a desire to introduce the Hungarian Justice quasi-populist solutions and implementation demands: frankowych conversion of loans, taxation of bank assets, increased state intervention and nationalization OFE

Caution about potential changes in the market also speaks Paul Golebiewski, zrządzający BPH TFI. He says that the election of a new president will have little impact on the bond market, lower than the exchange rate. This is due to mainly the high degree of unpredictability.

For market participants – considers Golebiewski – the preferred candidate for president Bronislaw Komorowski was because it was known what to expect from him, and came from a party that, at least in the declarations is more free-market

– Win Andrzej Duda may temporarily weaken the zloty and enter a slightly higher volatility. Investors do not know him and some of his ideas concerning eg. A tax on banks, does not arouse enthusiasm, especially among foreign investors – explains Pawel Golebiewski. However, he stresses that the confusion associated with uncertainty but the effect will be short-lived.

Some analysts notes that in Poland, presidents have limited executive power and are unlikely to change their promises of the revolution.

– The president is, however, involved in international affairs and appoint some key officials, eg. one-third of the members of the Monetary Policy Council. The future president will appoint two of them already in the first quarter. 2016. – Reminds Magdalena Polan of Goldman Sachs.

Experts try to guess what investors do with their portfolios, if you will change for the bridge over the Vistula River.

– The massive sell-off of the zloty and bonds is unlikely to expect, but certainly increased volatility. In the short term change of president will be negatively received by the markets – says Piotr Bujak. In the longer term actions will be more important than words.