The improvement in the labor market somewhat inhibited – Republic

Source: Fotorzepa

The author: Magda Starowieyska

The unemployment rate fell in April to 11.2 percent. with 11.7 percent. in March – GUS has reported. The number of employed in the first quarter. Was while about 1.7 percent. higher than a year earlier.

At the end of April, registered at labor offices was 1.78 million people, or about 78.5 thousand. people less than a year earlier and approx. 300 thousand. people less than a year earlier – the GUS. Thus, as the unemployment rate fell. In April of this year it amounted to 11.2 per cent., In March – 11.7 per cent., And the year before – 13 percent. At the end of this month, the labor offices dysponowały jobs for 79.0 thous. people (against 69.9 thousand .; month a year ago 65.6 thous.).

On the labor market so you can see improvement, but economists point to a silhouetted flaw in this improvement. – April was another month in a row deceleration of earlier positive results in terms of registered unemployment – says Alexander Świątkowska, BOS Bank economist. The point is that unemployment is falling primarily due to seasonal factors, the unemployment rate after excluding the impact of seasonal effects decreases much more slowly – up to 11- 11.05 percent. from 11.1 percent. in March. – The continued relatively strong growth allows you to maintain positive dynamics of employment and unemployment nierosnącego, but in the case of the Polish economy GDP growth of 3-4 per cent. is too low to ensure sustainable and strong growth in employment and falling unemployment – reads BOS Bank.

The CSO also presented data on the economic activity of population (LFS). In the first quarter the number of employed amounted to 1.58 million Poles. That’s about 1.7 percent. more than a year earlier, but it is worth noting that throughout 2014. growth of 1.9 per cent. This slowdown results, among others with a decline of 1.5 percent. the number of employed in the public sector – even fell by 1.5 percent. The unemployment rate according to the Labour Force Survey in the first quarter. Br. was 8.6 percent. to 10.6 percent. the year before.

Victor Wojciechowski, chief economist Plus Bank believes that the improvement in the labor market is still taking place. – But a spoon of tar in a barrel of honey is the volume of orders in the industry, which fell in April by as much as 14.7 percent. year on year to their growth by 5.9 percent. in March – notes Wojciechowski. He adds that export orders were sleeping “only” about 4.5 per cent. Compared with an increase of 5.8 per cent. A month ago, which – if the April data would not be a one-month disorder – indicating a slowdown in domestic demand. – Given the disappointing data the dynamics of industrial production in April (slowdown to 2.3 percent. Year on year from 8.3 per cent. in March), falling volume of orders suggesting a significant zadyszce in Polish industry – adds the economist. And that could affect the willingness of companies to hire.

– Although information from the labor market are very positive, it is worth noting that leading indicators in industry PMI for April shows a slight cooling of sentiment. This means that the tendency for employment in the industrial sector clearly weakened – Gregory says Baczewski of Lewiatan Confederation.

– However, in the following months, employment should continue to rise, and the unemployment rate in the summer for sure falls below 10 percent. – he added.